PREDICTION: Ohio State 80, Illinois 63

Matt Sylvester's three-pointer in 2005 not only ended Illini perfection, it signaled a swing in the balance of power in this series. Since then Ohio State has dominated Illinois, winning 10 of 13 matchups. In Columbus it has been worse. Four of Illinois' last five trips to Ohio State ended in losses (by 19, 16, 6 and 16 points). Today's matchup is as lopsided as any of those games. These are two programs distinctly pointed in opposite directions. Ohio State is playing for a Big Ten title; Illinois is playing for its own pride. Buckeyes win big. (News-Gazette prediction record: 18-9).

PAUL KLEE'S STORYLINES

1

Recruiting effort

Immediately after the loss at Nebraska, Bruce Weber boarded a flight for a recruiting swing through Chicago. "It's my job. I'm the coach at Illinois," he explained. "There was a big game and lots of recruits. I love recruiting. I love high school games and seeing top players. It's never fun to go recruiting after you lose. But that's just part of the job." And how will this Illini freefall affect recruiting going forward? High school stars might sign a letter of intent with a school, but they choose a school based on the coach. And no one is certain who will coach the Illini after this season. "There is obviously going to be immediate doubt and uncertainty, along with a lot of questions as to whether the in-state Big Ten school down the road will still be a viable option," said veteran talent evaluator Joe Henricksen of the City/Suburban Hoops Report. "But a lot of things still need to play out for these kids and their people to make any rash decisions or judgments. More than anything, it's a lack of a program's success that impacts recruiting and the views of potential recruits for any program, especially elite prospects with their pick of the litter."

2

Building a bubble

During the Illini's five-game losing streak, opponents are shooting 52 percent against the Illini. Only one of the four opponents missed more shots than it made (Purdue, 45 percent). Those are startling numbers for a system predicated on sound defense. What is the cause of this defensive collapse? "I think some of it is fundamentals. Pride. And a little bit of effort," Weber said. "We've got to have something to hang our hat on. We were hanging our hat on (defense)." The coach laid out his message for the players: Stay positive and come to play. He had a goal for himself, too. "We've got to keep them away from the negativity," he said. Weber recalled an instance in 2004 that changed his tune on fan reaction. Illinois had won 12 straight games to win the Big Ten regular season title but then lost to Wisconsin in the tournament championship game. Weber was driving home from Conseco Fieldhouse after the game. "I just happened to listen to a call-in radio show, which I should have never done," he said. "It gets to them. It gets to the kids. It gets to everyone. So we've got to create as much positive energy as we can."

3

Big man battle

Meyers Leonard's better games have come against the more well-known big men on the Illinois schedule. Robert Sacre (Leonard had 21 points, six rebounds). Ralph Sampson (20 points, 11 rebounds). Cody Zeller (17 points before fouling out). And Jared Sullinger, his matchup today. Brandon Paul's 43 points grabbed headlines after the Illini's 79-74 win against Ohio State in their first meeting, but Leonard was key. He had 14 points and five rebounds while playing strong for 38 minutes. Coaches are more concerned with Leonard's defense on Sullinger than his own offense. Weber said it's most important that Leonard doesn't allow Sullinger to set up shop deep in the post. "When you let Sullinger do that he's almost unstoppable," Weber said. And the Illini expect Leonard will see one-on-one coverage with few double-teams — the same formula Ohio State used in their first meeting. "Thad (Matta) is pretty straight-up," Weber said. "He has a system and he believes in it and it works pretty well."

Game time: Illinois at Ohio State, 6 p.m. today

LINEUPS

ILLINOIS (16-11, 5-9 Big Ten)

Probable starters

P Name HT. YR. PPG

G Tracy Abrams 6-1 Fr. 4.1

G D.J. Richardson 6-3 Jr. 12.1

G Brandon Paul 6-4 Jr. 14.9

F Tyler Griffey 6-8 Jr. 5.2

C Meyers Leonard 7-0 So. 12.9

Top reserves

G Joseph Bertrand 6-5 So. 6.6

G Sam Maniscalco 6-0 Gr. 6.7

F Nnanna Egwu 6-11 Fr. 1.7

Ohio State (22-5, 10-4)

Probable starters

P Name HT. YR. PPG

G Aaron Craft 6-2 So. 8.1

G William Buford 6-5 Sr. 15.0

G Lenzelle Smith 6-4 So. 6.0

F DeShaun Thomas 6-7 So. 14.6

F Jared Sullinger 6-9 So. 17.5

Top reserves

F Evan Ravenel 6-8 Jr. 4.0

F Sam Thompson 6-7 Fr. 2.6

F J.D. Weatherspoon 6-6 So. 3.6

FACTS & FIGURES

Site: Value City Arena (18,809), Columbus, Ohio.

Radio: Brian Barnhart and Jerry Hester call the action on WDWS 1400-AM, WHMS 97.5-FM, WDAN 1490-AM, WDNL 102.1-FM and WPXN 104.9-FM.

TV: ESPN. Mike Tirico is on play-by-play duties, while Dan Dakich provides the color commentary.

Series: Illinois leads 102-70. Ohio State has won five of the last six meetings and 10 of 13 against Illinois. Bruce Weber is 6-10 against the Buckeyes.

Coaches: Weber (209-97 in ninth season at Illinois, 313-151 in 14th season overall); Thad Matta (212-62 in eighth season at Ohio State, 314-93 in 12th season overall).