Tate: Illini might have better luck next year
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Where does Illinois basketball go from here? Can Bruce Weber reverse a negative trend and bring it back to Big Ten contention and some degree of national status?
As another mediocre UI campaign winds to a close, the Illini need to defeat Indiana on Saturday (11 a.m., Big Ten Network) to square the five-year Big Ten record at 44-44 since Dee Brown and James Augustine graduated.
And the question is being asked: Will a club losing four senior starters be better next season?
The answer is: "Compared to what?"
Compared to their dramatically weakened Big Ten brethren, maybe yes. Another conference season in the range of .500 might be attainable although Illinois is more of a question mark than most.
Compared to the nation at large, probably not. It's a long time off, and there'll be additions and subtractions – more than 300 players transferred last year – but perhaps no conference is projected to drop in stature as much as the currently second-ranked Big Ten (behind only the Big East).
Guard play is bound to suffer when Kalin Lucas, Talor Battle, E'Twaun Moore, Demetri McCamey and Juice Thompson graduate. These five have been high-level, multiyear backcourt leaders for their teams.
Eight of the Big Ten's top 12 scorers will complete their eligibility, and 14 of the top 30.
Top of the heap
Three clubs have separated themselves from the pack in 2011. Let's check them out for next season.
Ohio State: Thad Matta's Buckeyes should be Top 10 again if Jared Sullinger keeps his word and returns. Even so, they'll miss David Lighty, Jon Diebler and Dallas Lauderdale, and they figure to be a tad shy of this year's team ... but good enough to win the Big Ten again.
Purdue: You can't lose the powerful 1-2 punch of Moore and JaJuan Johnson – those two make incredible shots – and be as good.
Not even if Robbie Hummel is healthy. The 2012 Boilermakers will lack firepower from the center position, and their role players like D.J. Byrd (personal-high 16 points Tuesday) can be guarded.
Wisconsin: There'll be a shortfall in frontline scoring when you take away the 30 points by Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil. Everyone will double-team likely preseason Player of the Year Jordan Taylor. The Badgers will be good but not better.
Look out for Michigan
Around the conference, Penn State will dip again in replacing four senior starters, Michigan State boasts up-front muscle but is scrambling to find guard help, Minnesota also is destitute at guard and might look for a new coach if the Tubby Smith rumors are accurate, Northwestern will be Northwestern, and it's hard to get excited about three-win Iowa and Indiana clubs.
That leaves Michigan, which has everybody back and developing stars in Darius Morris, Tim Hardaway and Jordan Morgan ... plus newcomer Nebraska.
We'll learn more about the Cornhuskers later but this much we know: Nebraska, which never has won an NCAA game and hasn't made the field in this young century, reached 19-10 with recent home wins against Texas and Missouri. So it appears the conference will welcome another midrange team that tends to come alive in the friendly confines. To be better, they must replace Lance Jeter, the 225-pound point guard who gave up football to become their one explosive performer.
Back to the 2012 Big Ten: It is possible, based on what we presently know, that Michigan might be the only improved team of the top nine in the current standings. OK, with the shifts in the tide, that probably will change. But right now, tell me another team outside of Iowa and Indiana that is certain to be better.
Northwestern? Maybe, but the porous defense and mediocre rebounding still will be there. Michigan State? Sure, you'd expect the Spartans to rebound, but who'll replace guards Lucas, Durrell Summers and Mike Kebler?
Wisconsin? We'll underrate the Badgers again – everybody does – but will they actually be better?
So, for Illinois, the path projects as considerably softer than it was this season. There'll be no Battle draining impossible treys in State College, Pa., no Johnson arching backward for high-extension J's, no Lucas racing through a numbed defense. Those guys can't be replaced. But the question remains: Will Illinois be able to turn its athleticism into production and thereby take advantage of a weakened conference?
Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.
"But the question remains: Will Illinois be able to turn its athleticism into production and thereby take advantage of a weakened conference?"
Why should they even have to rely on a weakened conference to be atop the standing? Six yrs post Championship game and it is still excuse after excuse.Should this long under Weber the Illini be on top,every year? Look at Matta,God look @ Painter.....When will the eyes open and admit that Weber is out of his league here?Another few yrs,then what a great recruiting class coming in 2015 the a contract extention and then well give him a few more years.....WHERE DOES THIS STOP???????
This may be the most revealing article I've seen from you in quite some time Loren.
We "might" be able to attain a .500 record in the Big Ten and probably won't make strides against the national basketball base. As that soaks in, it is telling just how far our program has dropped.
Our league is probably going to be weaker next year. So if everything falls into place, and our young guys step us, we might have a chance. Guess what other franchise says the same thing year after year?
The Chicago Cubs
Loren might be correct that the Big Ten will be weaker although other Big Ten coaches often seem to be able to do more with less. However, on the national scale Loren did not talk about how the Illini will fit in. I don't care if we win the Big Ten if we can't make a good showing in the NCAA tournament.
I think Loren is missing one factor about the fan base. Winning the Big Ten is not the key factor. People want to see the Illini making consistent runs at the Final Four and occasionally maybe a win or two there. Winning the Big Ten and losing a game in the NCAA is a losing season.
Illinois went for a couple of deacades with weak teams. It took Henson a long time to redevelop the team and as he did NCAA allegations (wrong as they were) took Illinois back down again. We had two coaches who appearred to revivie the team again and then Weber who looked good with Self's players but in reality doesn't have the recruiting ability.
The other issue is all the discussiion about the quality of in state recruits. A good team is able to recruit nationally and bring in the players it needs. A bad Illinois crop should be irrelevant.
Mr. Tate: I must have missed the memo. Is the season over? I thought, we had IU game, the BTT, and then the NCAA? Seasons are made in March, we are only 4 days into it.
If it is alright with you Mr. Tate, I will watch the rest of the games, even though, you have judged the season "mediocre."
AI
I wish I could find a job where I could make 1.5 million dollars (plus incentives) and poor results were acceptable. Bruce Weber is a lucky man.
So after these three ballyhooed classes are all here next year Tate is already setting the table for us to expect to be mediocre. Why does Weber have this job again?
I will tell you what. I bet tOSU, Purdue, and Wisky will all be ahead of us again next year. Why you ask? BECAUSE THEY HAVE GOOD COACHES.
When are people like Loren going to wake up and realize that Weber isn't getting the job done? 5 years with no NCAA wins? That is flat out horrible at a school like UI.
I heard somebody coin this phrase the other day and I think it is so fitting:
"Bruce Weber basketball - Probation results without the probation"
Bravo Bruce, bravo.
Nobody knows what the Illini will look like next season. We lose a lot of experience, but we gain a lot of talent. We will likely have 9 consensus (RSCI) top 100 players on the roster -- I assume Egwu will make the Final RSCI Top 100 since he is top 100 on Scout, Rivals, and ESPN right now.
We have not had that many highly ranked players on our roster in a very long time. Yes, they will be young in many cases, but the odds that some will contribute early improve considerably when you have a lot of young talent. Ratings don't tell you everything, but they do tell you something. Teams with lots of highly rated players tend to do better as a rule, and that's a fact.
The departing seniors had their flaws as well as their virtues. Not all Weber teams have had those flaws by a long shot. Let's wait and see how our new team performs next season before passing judgment on them.
"Another conference record in the range of .500 might be attainable"? Wow, Loren, don't set the bar any lower, you might trip over it.
It's unbelievable how far this program has fallen under Bruce Weber. From consistently competing for Big Ten titles and high tournament seeds to "maybe we can go .500 in conference" and barely making the tournament (and zero tourney wins since 2006). It's too bad we don't have an AD who expects better.
Who is going to hire or fire anybody? The State of Illinois and the UI have gotten themselves in a mess over the years and are still hiring administrators who will have that responsibility. (Elections do matter and we should be electing leaders with integrity). So the crying for someones head could really be toned down until the people who can do something about it are put in place.
You can take any position that you so desire on both Zook and Weber as to their future at Illinois.Until we name a new AD we are all just be whistling in the wind.Our current AD has 2 unpopular and struggling coaches,Perhaps of even greater concern is the fact that Illinois is last in revenue in the BIG TEN Conference and 10th in revenue[ahead of private school Northwestern]. It is what it is.How did we get here?
It's really pathetic that the University, the Athletic Department, and the corporate shill Loren Tate have to lower the expectations this far. IN every metric other than national titles, this program is a clear Top 15 program - wins, winning percentage, tourney appearances, Final Fours, etc. Every metric we are a national player. We are in year 8 of Bruce Weber, and after living off the players that were here when he arrived, we are looking at year 5 of absolutely sub par performance. Missed tourneys, bubble team, no NCAA in almost 5 years. And Loren now reminds us that IF the stars align, and IF the other teams don't progress, we MIGHT be a .500 club. And there's no outrage, there's no highlighting that this should not be the goal.
The Football program is "better than Indiana" since Guenther took over, and not the basketball program is regressing to levels not seen in 30 years. It's only a matter of time before we are reminded that "at least we're better than Iowa" in basketball.
It's embarrassing that the University gives us this. It's pathetic that the writers that should be demanding more are nothing but puppets for Ron Guenther.
Like the Blackhawks and Bill Wirtz where the Blackhawks were a black hole of ineptitude until Wirtz died - NOTHING changes at the university of Illinois athletic program until Guenther and his lapdog Loren Tate leave.
It cannot happen soon enough.
I actually think Tate's article is pretty fair. True, the bar is low, but it is what it is (44-44, numbers don't lie).
Illinois basically has JRich, DJ, and BPaul in terms of game experience. You just hope the .500 mindset hasn't become the culture. At least those guys bring solid effort (so far).
So for all the flamethrowers out there:
Can you tell me where Tate said that Illinois' mediocre prospects for next year is a sign of good coaching or even acceptable? He is just telling it like it is. Next year is a question mark. We don't have any demonstrated consistent leaders in the current Sophmore and Freshman classes - though Paul and Richmond have been very good at times this year. We have no idea how good or bad next year's class will be.
Weber is on the hook for all of this and if his contract expiration was closer to this year, this discussion of getting rid of Weber would be more productive. Some of you don't like to acknowledge that he is under contract until 2015, so he would have to fail even more spectacularly than he has to be let go in the short term. There would probably have to be dead bodies rather than Carlwell's nearly dead body. The fact that Tate isn't calling immediately for Weber's head says more about your frustration and Tate's analysis of the current situtation.
WOW....after all the hype about this sophomore and freshman class over the past 3-4 years and this is what is projected for next year? PATHETIC! Maybe someone judging the talent level of our recruits needs to rethink their criteria? Illinois basketball will soon be as irrelevant as Illini football. But hey, keep RG around and all of you keep sending those IFund donations and buying season tickets, that's what RG likes.
I don't understand why people read Tate's columns if they don't like his comments. I don't read Gregg Doyel's columns b/c I think his comments are irrelevant grunts. So why read Tate's columns? Anyone?
Tate is not right about everything, but he does provide a lot of food for thought. That's his job. Don't criticize him for doing his job.
Simon Fraser University assistant professor, Kurt T. Dirks, studied the impact of trust in college basketball team success. After surveying the players on 30 teams, he determined that players on successful teams were more likely to trust their coach.
He found these players were more likely to believe that their coach knew what was required for them to win. They believed the coach had their best interests at heart; they believed the coach came through on what he promised. (Something to think about: trust in their teammates was hardly deemed important in the study.)
Dirks, Kurt T., Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol 85(6), Dec, 2000. pp. 1004-1012.
"You can take any position that you so desire on both Zook and Weber as to their future at Illinois.Until we name a new AD we are all just be whistling in the wind.Our current AD has 2 unpopular and struggling coaches,Perhaps of even greater concern is the fact that Illinois is last in revenue in the BIG TEN Conference and 10th in revenue[ahead of private school Northwestern]. It is what it is.How did we get here?"
Excellent post. The key is pushing RG into retirement - he's the guy doing coach evaluations and making all the ridiculous extensions/pay raises for average/mediocre results.
Imo, I read Tate because there are few other options on this website. I may have been wrong in thinking that the hometown newspaper was the best place to get information about the Illini. Lately I have been reading some of Mark Tupper's blogs at the Decatur Herald and they seem a lot less biased than Tate's and also Garner a lot more comments.
Alamoillini epitomizes the proper attitude of a real fan...someone who doesn't rush to be negative or pessimistic. If one can't have high hopes for their team at this point in the season why even cheer? I still believe the best MAY be yet to come before this season is over. Just remember Michigan in '89 and NC State in '83. They shocked the world. Let's keep hoping!
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