Tate: You won't catch me complaining
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No complaint here. Illinois didn't do quite enough ...
Good Good Friday, featuring the Illini's defeat of Wisconsin, offered a highly promising NCAA tournament outlook. Up to that time, developments around the country put Bruce Weber's gang on the right side of the bubble.
Then came Saturday, the unlucky 13th, with Lady Luck not only frowning but scowling. Overnight, Illinois faced an Incredibly Shrinking Bubble.
– The alarm went off early when Tom Penders' Houston club, 7-9 in Conference USA, upset the 15-1 champs from El Paso. UTEP was assured. So eliminate one slot.
– Washington rocked Pac-10 champ Cal. Would the Huskies have gotten in otherwise?
– New Mexico State, a defenseless club that permitted 92, 100 and 81 points in its last three conference games, nudged Nevada 80-79 in a WAC semifinal and carved a 69-63 tournament clincher against Utah State. Chalk off another although, if strength of schedule is truly a factor, Utah State doesn't belong, either.
– Minnesota, clearly behind Illinois for the Big Ten's fifth slot as of Friday, squashed Purdue 69-42 Saturday, apparently making moot anything that happened in the Sunday finale (the Gophers lost 90-61 to an Ohio State team that needed two overtimes against Illinois on Friday).
– San Diego State, unnoticed at midseason, capped a remarkable 11-2 run by beating UNLV in the Mountain West final. Make room for Steve Fisher's Aztecs.
– And these events pointed us back to Notre Dame, which appeared lost when Luke Harangody went down, and the opposite happened. The Irish rallied from a 3-7 slump, won six of the last seven and shot all the way up to a No. 6 seed.
No complaint here. Illinois didn't do quite enough ...
And what Sunday should remind us – and undoubtedly won't – is how silly this monthlong passion for bracketology projections has become.
What's the point of 10,000 bracket guesses when we don't know, and will never know, how many spots are open? One moment there are 34 at-large slots. Then it is 32, and then 30. Invariably, it shrinks. Who could have known about Houston and New Mexico State? Who could have imagined that Michigan State, with internal problems (Kalin Lucas was benched earlier; Chris Allen was suspended Friday), would miss 16 free throws in an OT loss to the Gophers, or that Purdue would set records for ineptness without Robbie Hummel?
And Mississippi State came within an eyelash of taking another spot in the last-second loss to Kentucky when John Wall was allowed to illegally dart in behind the rebounders to corral a missed free throw.
Such are the uncertainties of the business. Illinois, based on what we saw in Indianapolis, would have been a dangerous 12 against those No. 5s – Butler, Texas A&M, Temple – but we'll never know. Instead, the Illini will travel to Stony Brook where a win Wednesday would create an opportunity to host NIT games in the Assembly Hall on March 22 and 24.
No complaint here. Illinois didn't do quite enough ...
But did it really boil down to Illinois or Minnesota? Did the 60-58 home loss to the Gophers become the deciding factor for the selection committee?
That is possible. That and the fact that Illinois had an inexplicably low 75 on the RPI as of the weekend. That and the fact that, of 19 UI victories, 13 came against teams that didn't rank in the Top 100. That and the fact that Illinois had 14 losses, which is too many.
But if you take the strength of schedule and the body of work, which are reputed principles, a case can be made for Illinois over the Gophers. Illinois was 6-10 against teams in the tournament and, playing the four Big Ten leaders twice each, went 10-8 in the Big Ten standings.
Minnesota defeated Butler but lost to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami (Illinois' nonleague schedule was tougher), lost once each to Indiana and Northwestern, and fell to Michigan by eight and 28 points. Against the Big Four in conference play, the Gophers went 0-4 vs. Michigan State and Purdue, split with Ohio State and didn't have to travel to Wisconsin ... all this prior to the tournament when their NCAA life was saved as they were going down for the third time.
The committee didn't care if Minnesota lost by 100 Sunday (they almost did). The decision was made. The Gophers won an OT game in Indy, and the Illini lost in two OTs, and that became the last of hundreds of accumulated reasons.
Fractionally speaking, Illinois didn't do quite enough. It is a disappointment today and it now becomes four years without an NCAA triumph. But next season will soon become the focus, and Sunday's decision won't affect that one way or the other.
Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.
I agree that the Illini didn't deserve to be in. Bradley, Utah and the home loss to Minnesota. Hopefully the sting of not getting in will somehow add a little extra motivation and consistency to their play next year. The inconsistency of this season drove me nuts.
Did anyone catch what Bilas had to say regarding the complaining over the teams on the bubble that were not selected. Paraphrasing "we are talking about the national championship and those teams aren't good enough to contend for it". I agree with this statement, those teams would probably not contend for the national championship but neither will Lehigh, East Tenn St., Vermont, Rober Morris, Vermont, etc., etc. So Jay, then why do we have teams in the field of 65 that will never contend for the national chamionship? What you are saying would mean to take away all automatic bids and let the computers rank (BCS) the top 65 and there's your field. Then there would be no drama to selection Sunday and we wouldn't have to look at you.
Excellent points, ghosthunter, and Mr. Tate (who I have followed for a scant 40 years) is on the mark regarding the rule of fourteen, that is, for an at large merit-laden bid, it's just an unthinkable number as is Illinois winning % = .576. Let's go to NYC. Bring out the Krush. The road is open.
Wow . .Mr. Tate . .a clear, lucid article that is spot on. The Illini would clearly have been in if the bubble did not get so squeezed. If I though the Illini could consistently play at a high level in the NCAA tourney this year, I would have been really upset over today's developments . .but, realistically, one upset over a #5 or #4 seed would likely have been followed by a poor shooting stinker.
By the way, I for one, can't wait to see Meyers Leonard help the interior defense. Based upon what I saw in the 2A Championship games, he looks like a shot-blocking monster and appears to be a high-energy leader. Even his presence for ten minutes a game might vastly improve the Illini . .and a three-quarters court length three by a seven-footer . .Wow!!!!!
It's hard not to agree with Mr. Tate. Sure, we Illini fans are all heart-broken. Much as we were many times this season when the boys didn't play-up to their potential. The task at hand now is to use this disappointment constructively and focus on a better performance in the NIT. What could have been is what it is...the past. We still have games to play. There are some good teams at the top of this tourney. We are capable of taking it all the way. Unless Jay Bilas says other-wise! And that's another topic all together.
drink the Koolaid Loren. Weber has taken to program to NU and Indiana levels. Beautiful. Keep recruiting the Tisdale, Cole, Semrau, Keller, Jordan type of player and this is what you get. Don't ever blame who is really responsible- Weber and his staff. What a joke.
This talk about expanding the tournament is ridiculous. I would prefer to see it shrunk to 32 teams. Play one round of the top teams against the lower level league champions, and then get to the real tournament in the round of sixteen. Why do we let teams that placed 4th, 5th or even 6th place in their leagues play for the national title?
An even better idea would be to have 32 teams in a double elimination. That system would have a much better chance of selecting the best team as national champion, eliminating one bad shooting day (or one exceptional shooting day by the opposition).
With regard to Weber, the inability to get off a shot in limited time has been a problem during his entire tenure, harking all the way back to the Ohio State game in 2005. Whenever I see the shot clock get to 10 seconds, I know the chance of scoring gets down to zero unless someone makes a Hail Mary shot. With this year's team, opponents know that they can double team McCamey with the shot or game clock expiring and be assured of a stop. And by the way, why didn't Illinois take a good calculated gamble and double team Turner to stop him from driving all the way for the tying basket? The answer is simple, more poor coaching.
A switch to double elimination would be like the NCAA swallowing the poison pill. It would be akin to Illinois hiring Zook/Weber; the N-G switching to its space-filling, comic-book-like, "Gee, aren't we hysterical!" style in Sports; and the U.S. electing pathologically insane George W. The fail would be fast and ultimate.
Meyers Leonard won't be playing against "2-A" juggernauts when he gets to U of I. Didn't Bruce's staff learn from Tisday?
Speaking of Bruce's staff - - besides Snacks, just what do they do? Prepare the Illini for zones
(like the home games against Ohio State and Minnesota)? Bring in the likes of Senrau and Keller? Run the drills for offensive rebounds?
OandB is right.....Weber is not the man for the job....the offense is a disgrace when McCamey DJ or Cole are not hitting 30' 3 pt shots....the defense is incapable of adjusting....TIME AFTER TIME Ohio St drove past man to man defenders for LAYUPS !!!!!!! and we never ever played a zone ????? Davis is the weakest and most overrated player in Illinois history....played 46 minutes against Ohio St...did he SCORE at all ??????? Put in Ty and leave him there !!!!!!!
Hire Lavin after the loss to Stony Brook !!!!!!
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