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INDIANAPOLIS — When Joe Lunardi is on "SportsCenter," or when Jay Bilas is discussing who's in or who's out, or while any number of bracketologists are projecting the NCAA tournament field, Bruce Weber said he's tracking a different forecast.

"I really don't follow it much, to be honest," he said. "I just watch the Weather Channel."

He's joking, of course. As a bubble team, Illinois has been glued to bracket projections more than most.

"Everything's gone our way so far (in other conference tournaments)," Mike Davis noted.

The simplest solution to getting on the good side of the bubble: No. 5 Illinois beating No. 4 Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament Friday at Conseco Fieldhouse (1:30, ESPN).

Even that might not be enough for the Illini to sneak in the backdoor of the NCAA tournament, but a win today is probably mandatory.

"I think they still need to win it (the Big Ten tournament)," CollegeRPI.com bracket expert Jerry Palm said Thursday.

"A loss, especially a lopsided one, would prove devastating to Illinois' at-large chances. A Chihuahua emerging unscathed in a scuffle with a Rottweiler would have better odds," Yahoo! Sports bracketologist Brad Evans said Thursday. "Win and the Illini can spit shine their dancing shoes. Five RPI wins - more than tourney locks Tennessee, Oklahoma St., BYU and Vanderbilt - would look very attractive in the eyes of the selection committee."
 
Illinois (18-13) traditionally has been exceptional at the Big Ten tournament. It owns the most tournament wins (22), the best winning percentage (.688) and Weber has guided everything from No. 1 seeds (2004-05) and No. 10 seeds (2007-08) to Sunday's championship game. No team has placed more players on the all-tournament team than the 10 from Illinois.

"We just have to stay positive. We can't read the papers and read some of things people say about us, our losing streak and that kind of stuff," said Mike Davis, an all-tournament pick in 2009.

There figures to be the usual outstanding Illini contingent lending positive energy as well. Ticket director Jason Heggemeyer said the UI office sold 870 tickets. That number is down from 1,000 last year, but that's partly because 200 students jumped on a $50 deal through the Big Ten office.

"It's just about stepping up and making plays, so we can have a good run to the NCAA tournament, which is another goal we set at the beginning of the year," said Demetri McCamey, an all-tournament pick in 2008.

"We realize it's going to take a few wins. The first one is Friday, so hopefully we can get that," Mike Tisdale said.

Illinois will be a considerable underdog against Wisconsin  (23-7) and certainly to win its third tournament title. Weber said the Illini can draw something from the 2008 group that won three games at Conseco as the No. 10 seed.

"We can beat people. There's no doubt that can happen. We have to have the right mind-set," Weber said. "And maybe we need some things to go our way, some bounces to go our way, a couple ricochet shots, somebody hits off the top of the backboard and bounces off somebody's head and goes in. A couple of those things might help us."