Listen to Loren Tate on Monday Morning Quarterback here.

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – For all the fuss about the UI's last four basketball showdowns with Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue – the Illini managed a split – the next two games are even bigger because they carry long-nourished NCAA hopes with them.

All season long, prognosticators have penciled a "W" next to the Michigan and Minnesota games ... with the assumption that these two wins might put Illinois on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble. Tonight's foe at Crisler Arena (6 p.m.) is coming off one of its worst showings in a 13-13 Jekyll-and-Hyde season, a 55-51 home loss to Penn State in which neither team seemed capable of putting the ball in the basket in the closing minutes. However, playing poorly one game doesn't mean the Wolverines will repeat it in the next.

Michigan opened the Big Ten season by losing to Indiana (oh, no!) and defeating Ohio State (season high point). John Beilein's gang played Michigan State within one (57-56) but then was blown away by Northwestern 67-52 and Wisconsin 62-44. More recently, they triumphed at Minnesota and Iowa, converting 21 of 41 treys in those games, and came home to shoot 35 percent (and were outrebounded 33-20) in laying an egg against Penn State.

When Manny Harris (three straight games at 20) and the perimeter shooters are hitting treys, and DeShawn Sims is dominant inside, the Wolverines are dangerous. But the defense is not always dependable, and the shot selection varies. What we see is another underachieving but spoil-capable Michigan quintet which will probably fall back in a zone tonight to disrupt the playmaking of the UI's one-man gang, Demetri McCamey. Stop McCamey – bump him, crowd him, foul him – everyone is saying, and you numb the Illini.

Michigan has defeated Illinois just four times in the last 19 meetings, all four at Crisler Arena in the last four years.

Wandering thoughts

– How important are the final four minutes of a basketball game? Kentucky is 26-1 after outlasting Mississippi State in overtime and Vanderbilt by two. That's seven Wildcat wins by five points or less (or OT). Penn State is 10-16 with eight losses by five points or less. Yeah, it's silly, but reverse those close games and Kentucky is 19-8 and Penn State is 17-9.

– The hard-hitting Illini softball team is off to a 9-1 start while coach Terri Sullivan awaits the arrival of her first child, perhaps next month. Sullivan made the first trip to Las Vegas but missed the Stanford jaunt and will not travel to Columbus, Ga., this week. With assistant Donna DiBiase handling the team in her absence, the Illini are batting an astonishing .360 with Danielle Zymkowitz at .472 and four other regulars at .360 or better. The Big Ten home openers April 10-11 will be on the Big Ten Network.

– How far has the Big Ten Network advanced in 2 1/2 years? They're now in 19 of the country's top 20 markets (all but Los Angeles), and claim nearly 75 million homes with advertising increasing dramatically. That's why some financially strapped Big 12 schools and Pittsburgh look on with such longing as the conference considers expansion. The combination of TV and bowl links have made Commissioner Jim Delany the most dominant personality in amateur sport, not counting the Olympics.

– UI football coach Ron Zook received unhappy reactions from quotes forwarded by Herb Gould in the Chicago Sun-Times about negative recruiting and how "it all stems from us ... we shoot ourselves in the foot ... rather than get behind the program, our boosters and fans lambast ..." My response is that fans can't be blamed for becoming less than optimistic when the team is sub-.500 in seven of the last eight years, and 11 of the last 14, with seven last-place finishes in those 14. Teams that finish low always face negative recruiting.

More wanderings

– Illinois lost one RPI point, falling to 71 Monday after losing at Purdue, and stands directly behind New Mexico State (Lou Henson says the Aggies have more talent but fall short defensively), Oakland, South Florida, St. John's and Northeastern. Seventy-one is a weak number, and the Illini can't climb without getting wins in the stretch run. That said, it must be re-emphasized: (1) The RPI is merely one aid among many in helping the NCAA selection committee choose 34 at-large teams and (2) there are an undetermined number of variables based on season-ending results and conference tournament outcomes.

– The home court isn't quite what it was in January. Michigan State has six Big Ten road wins, and Purdue and Ohio State five apiece. Wisconsin has three but is 7-1 at home with that lone loss to Illinois.

– Big question in Michigan is how sales are going for the Wolverines' new football suites which open up in the fall. It can't help that cities like Detroit and Flint have become such trouble spots in a sinking economy. The word around Ann Arbor is that Rich Rodriguez has one more season to put Michigan football back on track.

– Best advice for Bruce Weber's gang: Shoot better, rebound harder and toughen up defensively, and let the officiating take care of itself. Sure, it seemed like Illinois got the sour end of block-charge calls at Purdue, and that Weber's late technical and the 24-3 free throw margin verified the belief that the refs favored Purdue. But mark this down: Officials tend to favor the more aggressive team, and aggressive players are the best defenders, penetrators and rebounders.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate<@>news-gazette.com.