Rossow picks Illini to win here. So does Klee here.

CHAMPAIGN – As he put on his orange Nikes before practice, Mike Davis considered the nightmarish schedule that awaits Illinois.

"I saw the one dude had us losing our last eight (games)," Davis acknowledged.

The Illinois junior might as well have been putting on a seat belt. Buckle up, Illini. The road to the finish line is about to get bumpy.

The eight-game gauntlet begins tonight when Illinois collides with No. 5 Michigan State at the Assembly Hall (8, ESPN).

That's just for starters. The next three opponents – No. 16 Wisconsin, No. 13 Ohio State and No. 8 Purdue – also are in the Top 25 of Ken Pomeroy's ratings index.

The final eight games are against teams that competed in the NCAA tournament last season and have been nationally ranked this season. The only opponents that right now would be excluded from the NCAA tournament are Michigan (and Illinois has a four-game losing streak in Ann Arbor) and Minnesota (which is plenty capable of winning at the Hall).

"The remaining Illinois schedule represents an immense challenge," said Mike DeCourcy, the veteran college basketball columnist with The Sporting News.

"The one dude" Davis referred to was Pomeroy, a statistics guru whose analysis is used by the Illinois staff. His Web site – kenpom.com – also compares offensive and defensive efficiency numbers to project the outcome of future games.

The UI staff, particularly assistant to the head coach Gary Nottingham, often checks Pomeroy's statistical analysis. Lots of coaches do. They find the numbers are helpful in analyzing the weaknesses of their own team.

It's important to explain, however, that Pomeroy's predictor isn't saying the Illini are hopeless against the toughest part of their schedule.

"I have Illinois as an underdog in seven of their last eight, but that does not mean I am predicting them to go 1-7," Pomeroy said Friday. "In fact, based on the probabilities, the most likely outcome is 2-6, and even 3-5 is more likely than 1-7.

"Think about a team that was given a 50.1 percent chance of winning each of its next 10 games. They would be favored in each, but you wouldn't expect that team to go 10-0 – more like 5-5 or 6-4."

Which brings Illinois to the bigger question: What will it take to reach the NCAA tournament?

"Ever since our team meeting (on Jan. 24), that's been one of our main goals, to get back to the NCAA tournament," freshman D.J. Richardson said.

Weber loosely estimated Illinois (15-8, 7-3 Big Ten) could use five more wins to feel comfortable.

"Any time you can get near 20 wins, I think that gets you in a good position," Weber said Friday. "Right now I'm not even trying to think about that. I'm trying to see if he we can get Michigan State at home. That's the biggest obstacle we have right now."

Experts vary in their opinions, but all of those surveyed believe Illinois has work to do before it can feel comfortable in regards to the NCAA tournament.

"The reason I believe a .500 mark (4-4 over the next eight) from this point would get the Illini into the field is there's no way for them to get that done without picking up two or three more quality wins to go with the Vanderbilt and Clemson wins from pre-conference," DeCourcy said. "Going 4-4 down the stretch would place Illinois at 11-7 in the Big Ten, and with so many big-time leagues facing trouble filling their customary number of bids, it's hard to picture an 11-7 team in this Big Ten not making it."

In the various mock NCAA tournament brackets released earlier this week, Illinois was "in" the projected field more often than it was "out."

But bracketologists are in agreement that Illinois' conference record is largely a result of a soft schedule that's about to get tougher.

"They were in (his bracket) principally because of the two good nonleague wins (against Clemson and Vanderbilt)," said Andy Glockner, who puts together a mock bracket on CNNSI.com. "The deceptive league record helps cancel out some of the bad nonleague losses, but with the schedule stiffening, that probably won't hold."

Michigan State (19-4, 9-1) thumped Illinois 73-63 on Jan. 16, a matchup that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. Weber has seen enough improvement that he believes Illinois is better suited to compete with the Spartans than in the first meeting.

"I think if you go watch our Michigan State game the first time, I think we're light years ahead of that," he said. "I didn't think we played very well in that game."

But there would seem to be more cause for concern in regards to the final eight-game stretch. Illinois has slipped past most of the Big Ten's also-rans and hasn't found a consistent scoring option outside standout guard Demetri McCamey.

"I'm not sure the Illini can play .500 ball in these (eight) games," DeCourcy said. "The last time they beat an NCAA-caliber team was Northwestern in December, and they haven't exactly been drilling the lesser teams they've been playing. If they're going to get to the tournament, though, they have to show they can beat tournament teams."

The defending NCAA runner-up certainly would qualify. Under Weber, Illinois has gone 2-3 against teams ranked in the top five, with the most recent win against No. 4 Louisville in a 2005 national semifinal. A win today would highlight the Illini's postseason resume – and kick off the toughest stretch for Illinois in several years.

"For our program right now, for our team, to make a step, to get a win (would be important)," Weber said. "One, it keeps us in second place (in the Big Ten). It keeps us contending. You're beating a top-ranked team. In the big picture, the long-term, there's a lot of stuff at stake."