Swami of hoop

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With Illinois' season done, we asked beat writer Paul Klee to look into the future of the Illini, the Big Ten and beyond.

What is Illinois' starting five?

1. PG DEMETRI McCAMEY, Jr. – When you're the point guard at Illinois, it's all about comparisons. Comparing second seasons, McCamey averaged more assists than Frank Williams, Kiwane Garris and Dee Brown. And more undue criticism than all of them.

2. SG D.J. RICHARDSON, Fr. – We're told of a pickup game where Richardson, a prep senior, asked a UI sophomore to defend him because another collegian wasn't presenting enough of a challenge. Competitive? Check. Still, it's always sketchy to etch a freshman's name into a lineup.

3. SG BRANDON PAUL, Fr. – His mother and former AAU coach, Lynda Paul, began putting Brandon through defensive drills after his seventh-grade year. If a player scored more than six points against him, he would be yanked from the game and from the starting lineup for the next game. So defense long has been an emphasis.

4. PF MIKE DAVIS, Jr. – During the final 13 games of his sophomore season – after opponents had 2 1/2 months to scout his strengths – Davis nearly averaged a double-double (12.5 ppg, 9.7 rpg). His goal next season: "15 and 9 or 15 and 10," he said.

5. C MIKE TISDALE, Jr. – The final three games of the season looked more like the 35 games in his freshman season: averages of 3.3 points and 3.3 rebounds. We'll forget those numbers and focus on these: Illinois was 11-0 when Tisdale led the team in scoring.

Sixth Man: SG ALEX LEGION, Jr. – Hopefully we're wrong, and the Kentucky transfer can defend his way into the starting five. Coaches are hoping for a blue-collar offseason.

Who are the five teams to beat in the Big Ten?

1. PURDUE – What's not to like? The top four scorers, rebounders and assisters return from a Sweet 16 team. JaJuan Johnson will leave early for the NBA – but not until after his junior season – and Decatur's Lewis Jackson is saving cash for a new car. "I think that's why I was always getting sick," he said in Portland, Ore., "because it's cold and I was walking everywhere."

2. MICHIGAN STATE – The Big Ten's breakout player resides in East Lansing. Look for forward Delvon Roe to make a Mike Davis-like leap as a sophomore. The 6-foot-8 powerhouse got a headstart with a clutch performance against USC in the NCAA tournament's Round of 32.

3. MINNESOTA – The Gophers are here if: Tubby Smith doesn't leave Minneapolis for Virginia or elsewhere, and all of the young bucks (Ralph Sampson III, Colton Iverson, Al Nolen) stay in the fold, too. If the nucleus remains intact, it's back to The Dance with a higher seed.

4. OHIO STATE – Despite their attempts to limit his exposure – remind us again why he averaged the same minutes as Dallas Lauderdale? – freshman center B.J. Mullens entered his name in the NBA draft. That's cool. More shots for All-Big Ten wing Evan Turner and All-Big Ten candidate William Buford.

5. ILLINOIS – We're banking on a commotion-less offseason for the Illini, who must walk a straight line off the court – and get to the line on it – to duplicate a successful 24-win campaign. One bad decision (See: Jamar Smith) can derail a program on a fast track.

Who are five impact freshmen entering the Big Ten?

1. ROYCE WHITE, Minnesota – Ohio State's Evan Turner might be the best comparison for White, who comes from the same high school as former Gophers star Kris Humphries.

2. BRANDON PAUL, Illinois – Where's the rebounding going to come from? Don't overlook the bouncy, long-armed freshman from Warren. He's not scared of contact, either.

3. CHRISTIAN WATFORD, Indiana – Minutes are still available in Bloomington. Along with local product Jordan Hulls, Watford figures to be in the mix early.

4. MATT VOGRICH, Michigan – Put it this way: We'll be surprised if the state of Illinois' Gatorade Player of the Year isn't on the Big Ten's All- Freshman team.

5. D.J. RICHARDSON, Illinois – Jamar Smith pushed Demetri McCamey back in the day; this competitor can do the same. Western Kentucky's A.J. Slaughter is a loose comparison.

What are five potential coaching moves?

1. JAMIE DIXON, Pittsburgh-to-Arizona – He's a West Coast guy, with family in L.A. and former assistantships at Northern Arizona, Hawaii and UCSB. Heading west worked out well for mentor Ben Howland, who has engineered three Final Fours at UCLA.

2. SEAN MILLER, Xavier-to-Pittsburgh – In the name of Gonzaga, we hope not. The kings of the non-BCS programs – Memphis, you don't count anymore – recruit at a high level and can take transfers of all backgrounds. We hope he stays at "X" for two decades.

3. MIKE ANDERSON, Missouri-to-Georgia – Twenty-one seasons in the South – at Arkansas and UAB – make this a reasonable move for the Birmingham native. You still would see him on the UI schedule – the Illini face Georgia near Atlanta next season – but with a roster that doesn't fit his electric scheme quite as well.

4. CRAIG ROBINSON, Oregon State-to-Virginia – Our under-the-radar pick. If you thought the recruiting turnabout at Illinois was dramatic, check out Robinson's handiwork: three 2009 commitments listed among Rivals.com's top 120. That, after the Beavers went winless in the Pac-10 in 2007-08. And Virginia's big-money boosters would love to support President Barack Obama's brother-in-law. Do the right thing, Virginia. Get him while you can.

5. BRAD STEVENS, Butler-to-Missouri – And Barry Collier will move from his AD position to take over the Bulldogs.

What are five key games on the Illinois schedule?

1. Vanderbilt at Illinois – Coach Kevin Stallings has the makings of an NCAA tournament team with the addition of another top-50 recruit (sharpshooter John Jenkins) to complement one of our hidden gems, future SEC Player of the Year candidate Jeff Taylor.

2. Illinois vs. Gonzaga, Chicago – With NBA prospects Austin Daye and Matt Bouldin and a recruiting class highlighted by foreign standouts, the Zags reload into the Top 25, where Illinois can be with a win in early December at the United Center.

3. ACC/Big Ten Challenge – The guess here is a road game at Clemson. Whatever the foe, Illinois needs a win to break a string of five straight losses to ACC programs (Clemson, Maryland, Duke, Virginia Tech and Maryland, again).

4. Illinois vs. Missouri, St. Louis – Only one team this season (Kansas) dealt Missouri a worse loss than Illinois' 16-point whipping in December. The Braggin' Rights win streak has reached a record nine straight, and it's about to be 10. Including Missouri, at least four opponents on the UI schedule played in the Sweet 16 this weekend. Maybe five, depending on the ACC/Big Ten Challenge pairing.

5. Las Vegas Challenge Invitational – Illinois will face Oklahoma State or Utah in the first game, with Bradley on the opposite side of the bracket, at the 8,000-seat Orleans Arena, just off the Vegas Strip. Bring quarters.

Who are five Big Ten Player of the Year candidates?

1. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State – A Big Ten Player of the Year hasn't defended his title since 2000. That was another Michigan State point guard, Mateen Cleaves, and Lucas has three other starters returning around him.

2. JaJuan Johnson, Purdue – Strangely, the Big Ten's premier big man was the lowest rated of Purdue's four 2007 recruits. Purdue coaches call him "a great kid;" NBA scouts began to track his progress during his freshman season.

3. Manny Harris, Michigan – He'll be joined in Michigan's backcourt by Darius Morris, a top-100 recruit but probably "a role player" as a freshman, according to a Los Angeles-area recruiting expert.

4. Evan Turner, Ohio State – The most impressive development relating to the Chicago product: his NBA-ready physique. He was a skinny wing at Westchester St. Joseph. Judging from his seamless transition to power forward, he's lifting weights with Terrelle Pryor.

5. Mike Davis, Illinois – Four Illinois players have been named Big Ten Player of the Year. Only Brian Cook (2003) wasn't a guard. A dark-horse candidate, Mike D can be the second big man from Illinois to win the award.

What are five things that will happen (at Illinois) before now and next season?

1. Early ticket sales – Where'd the students go? Student season tickets during the 2008-09 season were down 1,500 from the previous season. To combat the slippery trend, ticket manager Jason Heggemeyer said the ticket office and marketing departments are brainstorming on a plan to offer student tickets for next season as early as late April. That would jump-start season ticket sales, which were down 13 percent last season. This season's 24-win performance and the buzz around a four-player recruiting class probably won't hurt, either.

2. Midnight Madness preparations – When Bruce Weber and the UI marketing department combine ideas for the season-opening event, strange (and excellent) things happen. Two years ago, they hosted a "Pink Out" at the Assembly Hall, where the sales of pink T-shirts raised about $53,000 for Coaches vs. Cancer. Last year, the Illini brought an orange basketball court into Memorial Stadium, where about 16 prospective recruits observed the unusual experience on a balmy Saturday. Planning already is under way for the 2009 event – tentatively scheduled on or around Oct. 16 – and Weber is expected to meet with marketing officials this week. "This one should be something people will remember, much like the last two," marketing director Chris Hanna said.

3. Bruce Weber goes for gold – He doesn't talk about it often, but working under the USA Basketball banner is one of Weber's most cherished pastimes as a coach. As he watched Deron Williams win Olympic gold in August, the UI coach said he "would like to get involved again." The opportunity arrived with an appointment to the USA Basketball men's junior national team committee. Weber will help select coaches and players for rosters that will compete in seven international tournaments during the next four years, including this summer's FIBA Under-19 World Championships.

4. Trent Meacham goes pro, Chester Frazier goes coaching – Champaign's finest's fiancee announced last week she will forgo her final season of eligibility as a sharpshooting guard at St. Louis University. "I am excited about my upcoming marriage and the opportunity to support and encourage my future husband as he pursues a professional basketball career overseas," Theresa Lisch said. Meanwhile, Chester Frazier said he's uncertain of his plans – he's not ready to retire his Nikes, but an aching body says otherwise – and Weber has invited him to return as a student assistant. Coaches think the Baltimore product would be an asset in developing the team's toughness.

5. The recruits are coming, the recruits are coming! – How much will they play? Who will redshirt? Those are questions for another day, and here's a reminder these guys aren't blue-chip program-changers. But the campus arrival of four 2009 recruits ends a drought where Illinois rarely was able to land its A-list targets. That wasn't the case with Tyler Griffey, D.J. Richardson, Brandon Paul and Joseph Bertrand. All four recruits said they plan to be on campus the second week of June. "June 15 is when summer school starts," Griffey said, and he's correct. Bertrand added, "It should be fun." The four then-freshmen who arrived at the UI in June 2007 would attest the summertime before their first season was paramount in developing good vibes.

pklee@news-gazette.com

Comments

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tmoney68 wrote on March 29, 2009 at 9:03 am

These team should be beteer next year added depth and talent plus the sophomore class should be good! Remember they will get beeter with experience. I would rate Illinois 3rd and a close second, however Ohio State still has not resolved the point guard situation and whost going to score for Minnesota. Also Suton and Lucas leaving the Spartans are a bigger loss than anyone may think look at the last two touenmanet games and look at the wins over Illinois. They were huge contributors.

CentralIlliniFan wrote on March 29, 2009 at 10:03 am

This program was on the fast track? I would think the tournament would be a reminder of how far from being athletically competitive this team was.

Perhaps last year's football game/basketball practice was not a good example since it brought protests from the other coaches (including Izzo) and a change in the rules.

illiniba wrote on March 29, 2009 at 11:03 am

CIF - must you always take a pessimistic view of everything? If you had read the comments the recruits made about last year's outdoor basketball practice, they really enjoyed it. I think it was an excellent marketing ploy, regardless of the fact that it's no longer allowed.

swatlas wrote on March 29, 2009 at 1:03 pm

I disagree with Klee's comment that these "aren't blue chip recruits" - DJ, BP, Tyler are all top 50-75 rated and JB is also top 100; the class is a top 10 class nationally - so I'm not sure what a "blue chip, program-changing" recruiting class would be if this isn't it. While it remains to be proven, I'd say that this will be the best recruiting class we've seen since the Flying Illini (yes, better than Self's classes that included Deron and Dee, but also several disappointments like Rich McB and Brian Randle ...).

IlliniNationsCapital wrote on March 29, 2009 at 4:03 pm

Klee, great foactoid that Illinois was 11-0 when Tisdale led the team in scoring. But was Illinois good when Tisdale played well, or did Tisdale play well when Illinois was already winning? I contend it was the latter. Tisdale racked up a lot of points against Chicago State-esque comepetion, and was overmatched physically too often against teams like Mich State and even Minn and W Kentucky. In other words, Tisdale played the best in blowouts when we didn't need him. Tisdale is the Sammy Sosa of Illini basketball - you can count on him to hit a home run when we're already up 9-1. With new talent coming in, I'm not sold on Tisdale's role on the squad. Go Illini -

illiniba wrote on March 29, 2009 at 5:03 pm

IlliniNationsCapital - Fwiw - Tisdale averaged 10.3 in 18 Big Ten regular season conference games, compared to 10.2 for the entire season.

Those big 10 regular season games also included 18 at purdue, 24 against Michigan, 15 against OSU, 15 against MSU, all tourney teams.

What "new" talent do you see coming in to take his place? Illinois didn't recruit a center until the 2010 class - I don't think a freshman Leonard is going to overtake a senior Tisdale for a starting spot.

CecilColeman wrote on March 30, 2009 at 9:03 pm

Mr. Klee - WHO is going to rebound for the Illini next season? Certainly not Tisdale............

IlliniNationsCapital wrote on April 01, 2009 at 8:04 am

In response to what "new" talent we have coming in to compete down low with Tisdale, we have Simpson and Griffey coming in - two top-100 quality recruits who will both get their first chance to play down low next year. Along with Keller, Mike D and a (hopefully) rejuvenated Billy Cole, there's a lot of competition for the two post positions with Tisdale. that's a good thing.

Wenalway wrote on April 05, 2009 at 1:04 pm

Trent Meacham got engaged? Oh, that's right, the N-G has written about it 675 times since it happened.

Also, where did all the Big Ten bashers go, now that Michigan State is in the title game, and no members of the GREATEST CONFERENCE EVER -- the Big East -- made it that far? I wish the N-G had a real search function so we could look by year. I seem to remember Tony Bleill, among others, blathering about how terrible the Big Ten is. Oops.

And what happened to UConn's early tournament exit that was predicted?

Just remember: You can't spell wrong without N-G. These days, it's best to read what the sportswriter predicts and then to go the other direction.