Read how other reporters who cover the Illini think the team will fare in the NCAA tournament here.

PORTLAND, Ore. – Not many NCAA basketball "experts" expect Illinois to leave the Rose Garden alive.

It is a perception based on (1) UI point production ranking 62nd among the 64 teams, (2) leadership questions that multiplied when senior Chester Frazier fractured his right hand and (3) the shadow of nationally renowned Gonzaga hovering if Illinois manages to defeat Western Kentucky tonight.

On one hand, Bruce Weber's Illini are viewed as inconsistent because of frequent, inexplicable letdowns. And yet they are consistent – impressively resilient – because they never had back-to-back losses until the final games of the Big Ten season.

And now, we are repeatedly reminded, the only remaining starter with true playmaking skills is, well ... the epitome of inconsistency. That's why the word filtering through the Rose Garden, site of tonight's showdown against the Hilltoppers, is that Illinois will advance as far as Demetri McCamey can carry it.

That is unfair and accurate. McCamey was a broad-backed thoroughbred in the most significant wins of the preconference period against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Missouri. In those three games, the sturdy sophomore recorded 62 points and 17 assists. And in the only pre-January loss to Clemson, his 20-point outpouring was overshadowed by a failure to get off a potential game-winning shot.

Then, in defense-oriented Big Ten action, he shot 43.7 percent in the 12 wins and 29.7 percent in the eight losses. And in three of those games he failed to cash a field goal.

Passing the buck

Some point guards emphasize passing to the point where their attitudes are unaffected by scoring. That doesn't appear to be the case with McCamey. If he connects with a three-pointer early, it seems to have a positive effect. But he has always been a streaky shooter, and no one understands that more than he does.

"If my shot is not falling, I pass off," McCamey said. "Some people think that's not being aggressive, that I need to score 20 or 30 points. But I might get seven or eight assists."

Truth is, just about everybody on this particular team is affected by his shooting, whether it is Mike Tisdale on the post or Dominique Keller off the bench.

"Demetri is like several others on our team," Weber said. "If he puts up a three and makes it, he starts feeling good about himself. If he starts missing, it can go the other way."

Weber places more importance on the Matto play-hard chart than the box score. McCamey doesn't exactly fit the Matto's knee-skinning, charge-drawing style. Weber has used every imaginable approach for two seasons to instill the kind of intensity that allowed him to climb the coaching ranks. Weber strikes the match, the fire lights up and then it flickers out. It is an unending battle of opposite personalities, and it hit another low spot when McCamey saw just four minutes in the second half of Saturday's 66-56 loss to Purdue.

"Demetri has made strides," Weber said. "He has the body, the talent, the natural skills ... and it came easy for him in high school (Westchester St. Joseph). He has taken the first step, which is to understand what he is not doing."

Looking to the future

This is more than a one-game operation. Weber is counting on McCamey to be the point guard for the next two seasons. The coach is hammering for the long haul.

"He's just trying to make me the best player I can be," is McCamey's appropriate response, one that he has used frequently. "Sometimes he thinks I can do a better job."

No kidding. And especially on defense. Weber tends to assign McCamey to the weakest offensive player, while giving Frazier the toughest assignment. But Frazier isn't there anymore.

"We've had good team defense all season," McCamey said. "Now me and Mike Davis and Trent (Meacham) have got to play better. You have to go into it like a regular game and do the things we did to get here. It's a new season, and everyone is 0-0."

But McCamey isn't really 0-0. He is carrying the baggage of expectations. Illini fans have seen what he can do when the switch goes on. We saw his 25-point, seven-assist show against Wisconsin, and the last-second banker at Northwestern. Illinois needs "that McCamey" to take on a four-guard, trey-shooting team from Western Kentucky.

At tournament time, the point guard is usually the key.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.