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Team to beat: Louisville

Hard to play any better than the Cardinals, who have won 10 in a row and rolled to the Big East tournament title. It was their first Big East championship in their short history with the league. There will be more. Rick Pitino has a balanced team that can play any way you want. They'll run. They'll go slow. They'll defend. They will rebound. Earl Clark is the team's top rebounder and scorer. Teammate Terrence Williams, who serves as a point forward, might be better. He leads the team in assists and is second in scoring, rebounding and three-point shooting. The pairings are pleasing to Pitino, with a first-round game against the play-in winner, followed by a second-rounder against Ohio State or Siena. Even if it's the Buckeyes, who will play at nearby Dayton, the Cardinals figure to have a huge crowd. Playing out of the Midwest worked pretty well for Louisville 29 years ago, when Denny Crum took his first of two NCAA titles.

Team in trouble: Arizona

Do you think the committee was just being nice when it included the Wildcats in the field or was it an accident? Arizona's tournament streak improves to 25, with only North Carolina (27 from 1975 to 2001) lasting longer. The Wildcats are the last at-large team in the field and have lost five of their last six going into Friday's opener. What got them in the tournament? Probably early wins against Gonzaga and Kansas and a late-season sweep against UCLA and Southern Cal. But the run should be short. Even if the Wildcats slip past Utah in the opener, they likely will face Wake Forest in the second round. Whenever the season ends, Arizona will be looking to replace interim coach Russ Pennell, who took over after Lute Olson's weird retirement.

Dark horse: Southern Cal

Way back when, a cub reporter picked the Trojans to win the national championship. And caught a lot of grief when Henry Bibby's team fell six wins short. Maybe they won't win the national championship, but Tim Floyd's Trojans are capable of at least causing trouble. They proved it in the Pac-10 tournament, scoring wins against California, UCLA and Arizona State. Those three are all in the tournament, too. Southern Cal has been good against better teams this season, losing to Oklahoma. Please ignore the loss to Seton Hall or the one at Oregon State.

Sentimental favorite: Kansas

Why are we feeling sorry for the Jayhawks? Actually, we aren't. More to the point, we're impressed by Bill Self's brilliant work this season. He lost most of his team to the NBA or parts unknown. And he came back and won the Big 12 title. To gain a little sympathy, the Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 quarterfinals to Baylor. And they didn't get their usual cushy tournament site, getting sent away from nearby Kansas City to not-so-nearby Minneapolis.

Best first-round matchup: Wake Forest vs. Cleveland State

Great to see the Vikings back in the tournament after 23 years. Mouse McFadden led that Cleveland State team to a pair of wins and we won't be shocked if it happens again. Cleveland State had a nasty chore in the Horizon final, having to win at Butler. Facing that kind of pressure will certainly help against erratic Wake, which will go only as far as Jeff Teague carries it. Losing to Maryland in the ACC tournament was not a good sign.

Worst first-round matchup: Michigan State vs. Robert Morris

Like Cleveland State, the Colonials are back in the tournament after a long absence (1992). Unlike Cleveland State, Robert Morris has little chance against the stewing Spartans. Tom Izzo thinks like a football coach, which means the practices after the Ohio State loss will not be easy. He won't allow his team to look past Robert Morris to the Boston College-Southern Cal winner. Robert Morris scored 48 points in winning the Northeast Conference title. It will struggle to get half that many against Michigan State.

Local connection: Thad Matta, Ohio State

The Hoopeston wizard knows how to win in the tournament. Remember Xavier's unlikely run to the Elite Eight? That helped him land the big-time job in Columbus. He got to the final with Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. The Buckeyes weren't treated very well by the committee, but Matta won't gripe. He'll simply get his team ready and try to win the weekend.

National reaction

"When you win your conference championship and when you win the tournament and you win the number of games they did over the year, especially in the second half of the year ... (it) led them to the No. 1 seed," – NCAA tournament selection committee chairman Mike Slive on Louisville