Tate: Everybody's looking, but only few will find
CHAMPAIGN — If there's a young Bill Snyder sitting out there, come on down. If there's a young Frank Beamer, sign up.
Of course, nobody could have imagined that Snyder, already aging when he left Iowa, would pull the greatest resurrection job in modern college football at Kansas State. And were the folks at Virginia Tech really thrilled with Beamer when he went 2-9 and 3-8 to start with? Well, he's 11-2 this season, 132-38 since 1999, and replaces Joe Paterno as the winningest active coach in the country.
Point is, you never know what you're getting in this business. Michigan had it figured out with Rich Rodriguez. Hello, boomerang! The Wolverines tried for Les Miles, settled for Brady Hoke, and now the folks up North are getting their noses back in the air again. That's what beating Ohio State will do for you, even if the Buckeyes are ailing.
So here we are, with the coaching dominoes flipping and flopping in a nationwide carnival atmosphere, and the UI is trying to pick out the queen of spades after the quick-handed magician has cleverly maneuvered his three cards on the board.
Here's a shot of life: From presidential candidates to janitors, everybody has warts.
You think not? Well, if reports are accurate, Texas A&M has won the bidding for Kevin Sumlin, who rejected Arizona State once and Illinois twice (this year and two years ago). Sumlin is the Indianapolis product who emerged last month as everyone's favorite after his Houston Cougars won 12 straight. But if you were watching Saturday, Houston was on the short end of a 49-28 score that could make it hard for Southern Mississippi to hold onto Larry Fedora.
It's like breakfasting with flapjacks: Get 'em while they're hot. But if you look deeper, you'll see virtually every available coach — that's the key word: available — has suffered a worse season than Ron Zook (6-6) did this year. Last season, when Sumlin lost quarterback Case Keenum early, the Cougars finished 0-4 and came in at 5-7. Keenum returned this season and the Cougars caught fire again.
Thus, when Ole Miss went searching for a coach, the warning went out: Be careful on Sumlin. The Cougars have only been good when Keenum was running them. And they were not very good when Keenum wasn't. So, timing is everything. Sumlin finished as bad (5-7) last year as Skip Holtz did at South Florida this year. Nor is Houston's competition anywhere close to what the SEC will bring. I'm not saying ... I'm just saying.
Me? I would be fine with Sumlin at Illinois if AD Mike Thomas could outbid A&M. Why not? He has Midwest roots, coached at Purdue and Minnesota, and has varied recruiting contacts.
But Illini fans looking for a miracle are advised to control themselves. From Ole Miss to Washington State, from UCLA to Arizona State, these programs are looking for a savior ... and, just like Illinois, each is bucking the odds. Some will look again in five years or less (Turner Gill lasted two at Kansas). And if they're not looking, their victims will be.
I liked Mike
Nobody asked me, and I wouldn't be required to pay the consequences but, yeah, I was infatuated with Mike Leach. The eccentric "pirate" stood out as the possible, if extreme, solution to a desperate situation, and that's where Illinois stands. Desperate! UI fans are losing faith and top recruits are shunning visits.
Remember, when the Big Ten established the Leaders and Legends divisions, the 10-year evaluation for balancing the divisions showed only Indiana with a poorer record than Illinois. And it didn't get any better this season with the UI's 2-6 conference finish. Illinois stands 3-9 against Minnesota and 3-9 against Purdue, and those aren't exactly conference stalwarts.
So, from this perspective, Leach seemed like a good gamble. But he is a Bobby Knight to handle, has a pending lawsuit, and he was a clear no-fit at Illinois. What intrigued me was his 84-43 record at Texas Tech, and the fact he did it with a string of quarterbacks. So Washington State is taking a calculated gamble. Some say he'll implode at some point. But after two years to mull his idle book-writing period, I don't think he will. That said, he probably won't be as successful as he was at Texas Tech.
Washington State is just one of many joining Illinois in dreaming of something better than they've been getting. With the exception of Ohio State and Penn State — forced for different reasons — these coach-dumping schools are the outsiders looking in. When Andy Staples presented the top 20 football jobs for Inside College Football, he included only Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska from the Big Ten. No, he didn't even include the two teams that met for the Big Ten title, Wisconsin and Michigan State.
If that doesn't tell you how far Illinois must travel, what do you need? I recall an Illini assistant coach relating how difficult it is to recruit and win at Illinois, how hard it is to crack Chicago, and then getting upset when I reported it. You see, it is supposed to be a secret. You shouldn't say that the UI doesn't have a single commitment from Scout.com's top 17 in-state players. You shouldn't say that the UI is almost as dead in Chicago as in D.C. You shouldn't reveal how difficult it is to bring in junior college transfers. And for heaven's sake, don't mention that the UI is getting "seconds" from Ohio and Florida.
What's the rush?
Thomas would like an established head coach who'll hit campus with immediate impact and also have lasting power. That would be nice. But for all the talk about someone landing like a starburst and bolstering season tickets, it's the long run that counts. The ability to win games in 2013 and 2014, when the UI's Big Ten schedule becomes tougher, will be the determining factor.
Some leading prospects like Temple's Steve Addazio have shied away. Not Iowa State's Paul Rhoads, not yet at least. In his case, the record must be overlooked. We can cite Gene Chizik, who coached Iowa State to a winless (0-8) record in the Big 12 in 2008 and led Auburn to a perfect season two years later. Rhoads took that 0-8 tailender, went 12-13 overall the next two years, and defeated Iowa and Oklahoma State in a 6-6 campaign this year.
The report that Thomas sent out feelers to Addazio and Rhoads is further indication that the new Illini AD, as he stated, favors a working head coach in the college ranks. This being the case, his former hire at Cincinnati, Butch Jones, can't be overlooked. Jones earned the Bearcat job with a 20-3 mark in MAC games at Central Michigan, and he brought Cincinnati in at 9-3 Saturday with a 35-27 win against UConn. He qualifies as a guy with Midwestern contacts, which is not something you could say about such hot numbers as Art Briles of Baylor (he wasn't so hot against Illinois in the Texas Bowl) or Hugh Freeze of Arkansas State.
So it's a crapshoot. And if you bring in the coach with the biggest smile and the win-over personality, that'll last only until the first "L." This is a building job and it will take years because the gun has sounded and Illinois is in a three-point stance with the other seven runners already in motion.
Coaching tidbits
— Ron Zook appeared frazzled at season's end, creating an assumption here that he might sit out a season. But word is circulating that he wants to return immediately to the coaching ranks and has expressed interest in Florida Atlantic and Tulane, among others.
— As mentioned here earlier, Arkansas offensive coordinator Garrick McGee has departed, landing the head coaching job at Alabama-Birmingham. That creates the possibility that, if Paul Petrino doesn't get a head coaching job or remain at Illinois, he might wind up alongside brother Bobby Petrino again.
— Rumors have been quelled about Thomas traveling to Madison, Wis., and to Philadelphia. That doesn't mean Wisconsin coordinator Paul Chryst might not be interviewed. Oklahoma State's Todd Monken also has an intriguing background, but assistant coaches with an interest are too numerous to mention.
Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.
"Kevin Sumlin, who rejected Arizona State once and Illinois twice (this year and two years ago)"
-Why wasn't this talked about more? Tate with inside info?
"So here we are, with the coaching dominoes flipping and flopping in a nationwide carnival atmosphere, and the UI is trying to pick out the queen of spades after the quick-handed magician has cleverly maneuvered his three cards on the board."
-Now that's a Tate Line right there #Print_That
And Loren,
Really about Mike Leach? You know better than that.
If you're gonna even think about hiring Mike Leach, you might as well hire a Michigan man! And we all know what happened the last time we did that......
I think some have got this all wrong.. We don't need a big name coach to come in here stay for a couple of years and then bolt when things get tough.. I would rather them hire someone like Monken with ties to Illinois that might want to view this as along term position.. Lets face it we have a long way to go to get where we are going to and a big name coach is not going to stay nor will the fans let him if he has a couple of down seasons getting there. OSU ran one of the greatest offense I have seen this year so the guy has tallent.. Bring him home and make it worth his wild to rebuild the U of I into a national contender. Anyone every heard of putting some incentives in a contract? This guy is from Chicago and should be able to get us back in the pipeline. How long has it been since we had back to back winning season? Fans need to understand it will take 10 years to rebuild this program to be what they want so hire someone young and give him the keys to the car and let him coach. We all need to go to games win or lose and support the team and players no matter what.









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