CARBONDALE – It was late Thursday when Brad Cole, the mayor of Carbondale, surveyed the vibrant scene at Saluki Stadium.

He stood in a luxury suite. That SIU has a football stadium with luxury suites – all 12 were full for the stadium opener – is a marvel in itself. Below, there were 15,276 fans, including a record 5,200 students, taking in SIU's 70-7 win against Quincy in the first game at the brilliant $25 million facility.

But none of that is most noteworthy.

That SIU still has a football program is just as impressive as the brand-new stadium. It wasn't always a given. Ten years ago – maybe fewer – there was just as fine a chance SIU would drop its football program than there was of building a new stadium.

"It was close a few times," Mayor Cole agreed.

Think Illinois football has had it rough? From 1984 through 2002, the Salukis had two winning seasons. Numbers like those will force an administration to reconsider its needs.

"It was before I got here (in 2006), but the program was in such a state – and I hate to say the word – but it was in such a state of disarray, there certainly was a groundswell to drop football," SIU athletic director Mario Moccia said Saturday. "I'm glad we didn't."

So the SIU football program already overcame the biggest hurdle: surviving extinction.

There's your big-picture look at the Salukis. But you want to know whether these Salukis (1-0), ranked fifth in the FCS, can beat the Illini (0-1) next Saturday at Memorial Stadium.

I think so. Don't know if it will happen, but it can happen. If there were ever a time Illinois would lose to SIU, it would be this season. SIU possibly was the superior team last season, for one. According to Jeff Sagarin's ratings – a system that mixes FBS with FCS teams – seven FCS teams had higher marks than Illinois (94). One of them was SIU (86), for whatever that's worth.

The teams currently ranked directly ahead of SIU in the FCS Top 25 – No. 4 William & Mary and No. 3 Appalachian State – scored FBS upsets in recent seasons. Both came against power-conference teams in down seasons – William & Mary over Virginia (2009) and Appalachian State over Michigan (2007). Furthermore, No. 6 Richmond beat Duke in 2009.

Then there are the quarterbacks. Nathan Scheelhaase has that special quality – love his future – but four turnovers Saturday in a 23-13 loss to Missouri underscore his youth. Meanwhile, SIU has a fifth-year senior getting NFL looks. Following a stint at the Manning Passing Camp, Chris Dieker drew at least one pro scout to each of his two-a-day workouts. He's sturdy (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and can make whatever throw is asked of him.

But the biggest reason I think SIU can beat Illinois is this: SIU 35, Indiana 28.

In 2006, the Salukis became the only Gateway Conference program to beat a Big Ten team. Their win at Bloomington wasn't a fluke. SIU was superior, overpowering the Hoosiers with a strong running game and four touchdown passes from Nick Hill.

There are enough similarities between SIU-Indiana and SIU-Illinois that Illinois should enter the game ignoring SIU's lower-tier status. Like Illinois with Scheelhaase, Indiana had a redshirt freshman at quarterback (Kellen Lewis). SIU had a quarterback with a big arm (Hill) and has another one (Dieker). It has speed in the secondary and a capable running game. The defense, however, isn't as stout, and the Mikel Leshoure-Jason Ford tandem could have a field day.

"I would say the program is at a point where we do expect to be competitive in these games," Moccia said Saturday. "At the same time we're cognizant of the fact there's a significant scholarship disparity and how historic it is to beat an FBS team."

Here's where SIU has come the furthest: It would be more surprising if the Salukis are blown out than if they keep it close.

"It used to be when Southern played these games, it was just a money game (SIU receives a $350,000 guarantee). It's not like that anymore," said Mike Reis, the Hall of Fame radio voice of the Salukis. "Southern's program is at a totally different level than it was. These aren't the mismatches on paper that FBS vs. FCS games frequently are."

There isn't a confident we'll-beat-Illinois feeling among Saluki followers. But there's an expectation that matchups against the big boys will be competitive.

Since 2004, SIU has a one-point loss and a three-point win at Northern Illinois, a win at Indiana, a six-point loss at Western Michigan and a three-point loss at Marshall. It's too early to say for certain these Illini are better than those teams.

Still, an Illinois loss to SIU would be historic. Reis said he would rank it as the second-greatest win in SIU's football history, behind a win against nationally ranked Tulsa in the 1960s and ahead of a win in the 1983 Division I-AA championship game and the win at Indiana.

"And that's a subjective thing," he said.

It's the classic case of SIU having much to gain and Illinois having little to gain. Difference is, the opponents figure to be closer than, well, maybe ever.

Paul Klee is a News-Gazette staff writer. He can be reached at 217-373-7422 or at pklee@news-gazette.com.