Ask Tate if he's off his rocker here

Win or lose, positive attitude will be key

Here's my take on Illinois football.

The combination of new staffers and on-field talent is sufficient – in my opinion – to defeat Indiana and Purdue if the games were played next month.

And therein lies the problem. These next-door rivals come to Memorial Stadium in late October after Illinois has opened the Big Ten season against Ohio State and on the road against Penn State and Michigan State.

This analysis does not dismiss the importance of the opener against Missouri, but a full recovery from that game, win or lose, seems likely with Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois coming to Memorial Stadium. If Illinois can't win those two – warnings are out: they're no pushovers – the program sinks to a point where no analysis is meaningful and nothing short of a major turnaround could win back the fan base that already is slipping. Only about 85 percent of season ticket-holders have re-upped, and the lagging student turnout needs a big boost when they return to campus. Support, in general, is wavering.

Back on point: A year ago, Illinois was roughed up by Ohio State 30-0, Penn State 35-17 and Michigan State 24-14, and the team disappointment was topped only by the "here we go again" attitude among discouraged fans. That's when negative psychology reared its ugly head. Juice Williams couldn't get the offense off the ground (three lost fumbles) and Indiana led 27-7 in a 27-14 triumph. Then Purdue, pounding the UI with a surprising ground attack, led 21-7 during a halftime marked by Ron Guenther's statement indicating that Zook would be retained but some assistants wouldn't.

It was a low point en route to a 3-9 season.

So when people ask about the number of wins the Illini will get in 2010, my thought is always: "The last six games might be described as winnable. But, first, tell me the team's mental and physical condition when they come back from East Lansing Oct. 16."

This is not a deep team. Attrition has seen to that, weakening what were once well-rated recruiting classes. Oh, Zook has a strong corps of running backs, but it'll be scary if anything happens to rookie quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, the offensive line can't stand another injury like the one that sidelined Corey Lewis, and the tight end position seriously misses departed Hubie Graham. Defensively, the front four looks better than expected with Clay Nurse back and Akeem Spence improving, but ... well, put it this way, when the first-teamers go against the second-teamers, there is a notable difference. What does that say when the coaches insert reserves in close games?

As of today, team spirit is terrific. That, of course, is true on every practice field in the country. Nobody has lost a game.

The key for all teams is how they respond to adversity. There always will be setbacks, large and small. Good teams recover, just like Adam Wainwright did Wednesday when Cardinal infielders make junior-high errors. He got the next batter out. That's what Illinois has to do. If somebody fumbles, the defense has to step up. If a safety gets beat deep, the offense has to respond. And Zook will ask everybody to come together in the fourth quarter, a crucial period that often has found the Illini wanting since Kurt Kittner graduated. Other teams pull wins out of the ashes. Why not Illinois?

Over time, it seems that a certain psychology sets in. It had been strikingly negative for years until 2007 when victories against weak Western Illinois, Syracuse and Indiana teams led to Arrelious Benn returning a kickoff all the way against Penn State. That put a new psychology in play, and the Illini stayed upbeat for most of that season. A year later, Penn State was back in control (38-24) and the Illini found a way to lose an early Minnesota game that was devastating. Now, Illinois looks back on 14 losses in the last 19 games.

Today, Zook calls the talent level comparable to 2007. But what part will injuries play, and how will the early Big Ten schedule impact the remainder of the season?

— Loren Tate