Tate on Big Ten realignment
Loren Tate returns from his summer break with a new-look Sunday column, the lead of which deals with Big Ten realignment. Here's part of his take:
Ron Guenther, Illini athletic director, said recently that parity between the two six-team divisions is critical in setting up a lucrative playoff game, and that 10-year records will be taken into consideration.
Six conference members are significantly ahead in the 10-year audit. They are Ohio State (102 wins), Wisconsin (86), Nebraska (84), Michigan (81), Iowa (80) and Penn State (78). Clearly, those six should be divided equally. And it would make sense to split them along geographical and, in this case, time zone lines. That throws OSU, PSU and Michigan in the East, and Nebraska, Iowa and Wiscoinsin in the West.
Perfect! And it follows suit that Purdue (68), Michigan State (65) and Indiana (39) fall in the East, with Minnesota (62), Northwestern (61) and Illinois (45) in the West.
But there is a fallacy in basing the decision on total wins. Some teams played tougher schedules than others. So let's review it on conference games only. And there we find Ohio State (64), Michigan (53), Iowa (49), Nebraska (47 in the Big 12), Penn State (45) and Wisconsin (44).
Some will say that "time zone" divisions would be unbalanced in favor of the East.
To which I say, it'll never be perfect, and no one can predict how it will develop in the future. Who could have predicted that Iowa would defeat Penn State seven times in eight tries during the past decade? Who could have predicted that, with all those down years, Illinois would roll out an undisputed Big Ten champion in 2001 and defeat No. 1-ranked OSU to reach the Rose Bowl in 2007?
Have column ideas? Send them to Loren at ltate@news-gazette.com
Love this performance based rationale for a geographic/time zone/intuitive alignment, with a kicker that historical performance can only go so far to create the most balance. With each passing analysis it is hard to keep being reminded how lowly Illinois football ranks in the B10. It is absolutely time for a massive Illini turnaround given this new day in the B10.
As Guenther also said, the Big 10 has 4 "brand" programs: OSU, Michigan, PSU and Nebraska. These four programs will be split into the two divisions. Iowa and Wisconsin will then be split as well, being the best two non-brand programs. Illinois and Indiana will have to be split as the clear bottom dwellers. Then mix and match the rest as is convenient.
They do a 10 year audit, and you've got Illinois with 45 wins. I didn't even major in math, but I think that works out to 4.5 wins per season. That right there is why Ron Guenther should be in the unemployment line, and not discussing conference realignment as an AD.
It's also nice that Loren mentioned the two BCS seasons for Illinois... because the 26-67 record in the other eight seasons - slightly over 3 wins per season - is an even bigger indictment of Illinois football.
Conference realignment won't matter. Illinois would be permanently near the bottom of any football division as long as Ron Guenther is the athletic director.
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