It can happen. You can come off the pace and earn yourself a bowl bid.

In 2008, nine schools were under .500 after nine games and still made it to bowls. Two schools, North Carolina State and Southern Miss, were 3-6. The rest were 4-5.

Of course, it took late-season winning streaks. And beatable opponents. Among Wisconsin's final three wins were Indiana and I-AA Cal Poly. Colorado State beat New Mexico and Wyoming, where both coaches were departing. Memphis beat SMU and Tulane. Hawaii knocked off Idaho and New Mexico State.

What happened to the sub.-500s once they got into the bowl? They went a combined 3-6. The wins were by Rutgers (Papajohns.com Bowl against North Carolina State, another sub.-500er), Southern Miss (New Orleans Bowl against Troy) and Florida Atlantic (Motor City Bowl against Central Michigan).

When you put yourself in a giant hole, it's hard to get out. And when you do get out, you might be rundown by the time you get to your bowl. Even with a month off.

Which schools have a chance to make the run this season? Here's a guess (in alphabetical order):

Alabama Birmingham, 4-5

Big win: Southern Miss 30-17

Trouble ahead: at East Carolina, Nov. 21.

Odds of a bowl: 60 percent

Why: Blazers should beat Memphis (fired coach) and Central Florida, so the game at Greenville isn't a must.

Connecticut, 4-5

Big win: Louisville 38-25

Trouble ahead: at Notre Dame, Nov. 21.

Odds of a bowl: 80 percent

Why: Playing for their fallen teammate, they'll beat Syracuse and South Florida at home to close the season.

Florida State, 4-5

Big win: BYU 54-28

Trouble ahead: at Florida, Nov. 28.

Odds of a bowl: 50 percent

Why: Figuring a loss to the Gators, the Seminoles will need to sweep Wake Forest and Maryland. How much do they want to send Bobby Bowden out with a bowl game? You'll know in two weeks.

Illinois, 3-6

Big win: Michigan 38-13

Trouble ahead: at Cincinnati, Nov. 27.

Odds of a bowl: 10 percent

Why: There are no guaranteed wins among the final three and the Bearcats might be playing for a spot in the BCS title game.

North Carolina State, 4-5

Big win: Pitt 38-31

Trouble ahead: at Virginia Tech, Nov. 21.

Odds of a bowl: 13 percent

Why: Counting on a loss to the Hokies, they've got to sweep Clemson and North Carolina. Good luck with that.

Purdue, 4-6

Big win: Ohio State 26-18

Trouble ahead: vs. Michigan State, Saturday.

Odds of a bowl: 45 percent

Why: Like the Boilermakers, Michigan State is trying to get bowl eligible. If the Spartans lose today, they are in trouble because they finish at Penn State. If Purdue wins today, odds zoom to 90 percent with the finale at Indiana.

San Diego State, 4-5

Big win: Colorado State 42-28

Trouble ahead: at Utah, Nov. 21.

Odds of a bowl: 40 percent

Why: Congratulations to Brady Hoke, who has his team performing better than expected. But the Aztecs need to beat Wyoming today.

Tulsa, 4-5

Big win: Tulane 37-13

Trouble ahead: at Southern Miss, Nov. 21.

Odds of a bowl: 8 percent

Why: If only the Hurricane had been able to hold onto a late lead against Houston. The only sure win left is against Memphis, but Tulsa could be eliminated by then.

UCLA, 4-5

Big win: Tennessee 19-15

Trouble ahead: at Southern Cal, Nov. 28.

Odds of a bowl: 30 percent

Why: They should win at Washington State today, which makes the Nov. 21 game at Arizona State critical.

UTEP, 3-6

Big win: Houston 59-41

Trouble ahead: vs. Marshall, Nov. 28.

Odds of a bowl: 33 percent

Why: How did the Miners beat Houston and lose Memphis? Or Tulane? Still, they ought to sweep the SMUrfs and Rice to make the finale important.

Bob Asmussen covers college football for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at 217-351-5233 or at asmussen@news-gazette.com.