Two years ago, he predicted a breakout season for Ron Zook's team. A year ago, he told you Illinois was going to struggle to get back to the postseason.

So, Phil Steele, what's it going to be for the Illini in 2009?

"Illinois is in my Top 25," Steele said. "They're No. 19."

Steele's prolific magazine, which will be released in June, rates Illinois the No. 1 most improved team for 2009. And Steele also picks Illinois as the No. 5 surprise team for the upcoming season.

The surprise team category includes teams starting the season outside the AP Top 10 that have a chance to make a run at the national championship. Steele's No. 1 surprise team, based on an AP projection of No. 12 or 13, is Penn State. Georgia also makes the list.

"I love the offense," Steele said. "Juice Williams is dynamic. He's going to be one of the top QBs in the game. I've seen improvement from him every year."

Steele projects an Illinois-Georgia matchup in the Outback Bowl. But he doesn't discount the idea of Zook's team winning every game.

"If you told me at the end of the year, Illinois goes 12-0 and plays in the national title game, it wouldn't surprise me," Steele said. "That's what the surprise list is about."

Steele rates the Illinois receivers as the second-best group in the country.

"There's so much explosiveness, and they get some nice additions," Steele said.

He likes an offensive line that returns three starters.

"I thought they underachieved last year," Steele said. "They'll be better." The defense also underachieved in 2008, Steele said. He expects Martez Wilson, Corey Liuget and friends to play better in 2009.

Steele isn't just throwing darts at a wall. He uses statistics and trends to help him figure out how a team will perform.

When he looks back at the 2008 Illini, Steele sees a team that underachieved. The Illini outgained their Big Ten opponents by 86 yards a game but went 3-5.

"Statistically, they were the second-best team in the Big Ten last year," Steele said.

Steele said the schedule favors the Illini. Missouri, which has dominated Illinois in the recent St. Louis series, loses most of its offensive stars. Cincinnati, which hosts Illinois the day after Thanksgiving, has to replace 10 defensive starters.

"I actually have Illinois favored in 10 of the 12 games," Steele said. "The only two games are at Ohio State, where I have them as a seven-point dog, and home against Penn State, where I have them a three-point dog."

Steele said he has concerns about Illinois. Primarily on defense.

"If the defense is giving up 380 yards a game, that's a red flag," Steele said. "I'm a defense kind of guy. I put more emphasis on defense than offense."

The road schedule, outside of Ohio State, favors the Illini, Steele said.

"Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana, those games are all very winnable," Steele said.

Should the Illini reach a New Year's Day bowl, Steele likes their chances. Scheduling late games against Cincinnati and Fresno State should help the bowl preparation.

"Normally, the Big Ten gets to a bowl game and they've had 45 days off," Steele said.

Steele's No. 1 preseason team is Florida, the same team he had winning the national title last season. The Gators are followed on Steele's list by Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Penn State, Mississippi, Notre Dame, Alabama, Cal and Ohio State. Other Big Ten teams in his top 50 include Iowa (20), Michigan State (29), Wisconsin (38) and Michigan (48). Illinois nonconference opponents Missouri, Cincinnati and Fresno State didn't make the list.

The Big Ten will be improved in 2009. Somewhat.

"It's better than last year, but it's not up there with the SEC," Steele said.

Bob Asmussen