When Charlie Tilson verbally committed to the Illinois baseball team in the fall of 2009, the then-junior was barely a blip on the radar of pro scouts.

Then, in the late summer of 2010, the New Trier center fielder attended the 2010 Area Code Games — a national event in California for prep underclassmen — and took the talent showcase by storm.

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When Charlie Tilson verbally committed to the Illinois baseball team in the fall of 2009, the then-junior was barely a blip on the radar of pro scouts.

Then, in the late summer of 2010, the New Trier center fielder attended the 2010 Area Code Games — a national event in California for prep underclassmen — and took the talent showcase by storm.

Not only did Tilson belt the only home run of the wooden-bat Games; he hit .375 and swiped seven bases during the weeklong tournament.

With that, the Wilmette native's pro stock soared. And Illini coach Dan Hartleb was immediately put on notice that Tilson — though he would honor his commitment that fall and sign a national letter of intent with the UI — might never make it to campus.

"Not a lot of people knew about him (before the Area Code Games)," Hartleb said recently. "It put him on the map."

As it turned out, Tilson never again left the sight of MLB scouts, cross-checkers and scouting directors. And following a strong senior season last spring, to no one's surprise Tilson was drafted in the second round.

While he and the St. Louis Cardinals had yet to reach a deal as of Saturday — and won't face a signing deadline until Aug. 15 — Hartleb has been a keen observer of this negotiating dance many times before. In 21 years on the Illini staff — the last six as head coach — he's seen 11 high school or junior college signees with his program turn pro before they reached campus. Most, like Tilson, were selected in the top 10 rounds. From hard experience, Hartleb knows that is a tier of the draft offering serious money by teams serious about not squandering their high picks.

"You've just got to let it play out," said Hartleb, who remains in regular contact with Tilson and his family. "They'll make the decision that they think is best when the (Cardinals') offer comes, and then we're going to have to live with it — one way or the other. We'll either be living happily or moving on."

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The draft is the wild card in the recruiting deck of a college baseball coach. It can unexpectedly pilfer a late-blooming prep prospect. It can dash all the groundwork and legwork of the diligent recruiter. It can deny a college program a difference-maker. And, if multiple signees in a recruiting class succumb to the lure of pro ball, it can put a college program on its heels for several years.

"It doesn't matter who you sign; it's who shows up," veteran Minnesota coach John Anderson said. "I think that's the challenge we all face."

Perhaps the most difficult aspect is deciding whether to pursue those most talented of prospects who — if they remain injury-free and perform to their capabilities as high school seniors — almost certainly will be a high draft pick.

"That's a hard one," Anderson said. "Obviously (such a player) can be a difference-maker. (The question is) are you really going to invest the time and energy and money into this person, and what's the percentages of him really showing up on campus? When you do sign one of those guys and they don't, yeah, it doesn't help your program."

Coaches say they make such decisions on a case-by-case basis. When Hartleb signed highly regarded pitcher Casey Crosby in November 2006, the Illini coach knew it was a gamble, but a calculated one.

"We thought it was worth the risk," Hartleb said. "We knew he was going to ask (a pro team) for a high dollar amount. You don't know which organization will take him, and some of them have strict (signing) budgets. With the dollar figure he was asking for, we thought he could slide (in the draft) if he didn't have a good senior year."

As it turned out, Crosby did slide despite a strong senior season. Projected to go late in the first round or early in the second, the Kaneland High School left-hander wasn't selected until the fifth round. Still, the Tigers ultimately gave Crosby nearly all of his predraft demand of $750,000, going $620,000 over MLB's recommended figure for his slot in the draft (181st overall). Crosby signed for $748,500.

"You just don't know," Hartleb said. "The draft is not an exact science. To be successful, you have to go out and get some of those top players and get them in your program. And so basically you're rolling the dice."

Still, coaches diligently do their homework in order to make an educated judgment on whether to sign or pass on a top-tier prospect. Is he such a talent that there's virtually no chance he won't be drafted in the top rounds? How much money does he plan to seek? How much do he and his family value a college education? Would it matter to his decision if he dropped lower in the draft than projected? Is he sincere when he says he'll come to college if his draft expectations and signing demands aren't met?

"You try to do enough background work in the initial recruiting that you hopefully have a pretty good idea," Michigan State coach Jake Boss Jr. said.

If coaches do decide to roll the dice, they say it's imperative to have a backup plan. Anderson, who has been Minnesota's head coach since the fall of 1981, says he learned that lesson the hard way relatively early in his career. In the mid-'80s, Anderson signed a player he expected to be the Gophers' starting shortstop the moment he stepped on campus. Instead, future major leaguer Tom Quinlan signed with the Toronto Blue Jays right before school started.

"The mistake I made is I didn't recruit another guy to back him up," Anderson said. "If you have a player already in the program at that position who at least will be adequate for a year, maybe you take a greater risk (with signings)."

Risk-taking can also depend on the overall makeup of your current roster. Is it a veteran group with depth? Or is it a team that's been hit hard by graduation or the loss of players drafted following their junior season?

"I think it's based on the age of your team and who you have coming back," Anderson said. "If you feel comfortable that you have enough people in your program that if you lose (a risky signee and) it's not going to kill you, I think you'll take that risk more often. But if you need bodies and need arms and ... you've got to restock the shelf first, there are some years you'll take less of a risk."

Sometimes, however, the gamble just doesn't make much sense under any circumstance. Current and former coaches indicate there've been instances when they either did not pursue or have backed away from opportunities to sign a player they seemingly had no chance of keeping from the pros.

"Baseball is the only collegiate sport where you may not recruit a kid because he's too good," said Dave Keilitz, a former Central Michigan coach and, since 1994, the executive director of the American Baseball Coaches Association. "There's no other sport where that's the case."

Working against the colleges, too, is the skyrocketing of signing-bonus payments by MLB teams over the past two decades. In 1990, the average paid to a first-round pick was $252,577. By 2008, it had risen to $2,458,714 before declining slightly the next two years. This inflation has spurred an increase in payouts to draftees in succeeding rounds. For example, the third-to-last pick in the supplemental first round this year signed for $624,600. Another player selected in the middle of the second round last month received $490,000.

In other words, money that's hard to turn down.

"If you have (a recruit) who's going to be taken in the first three rounds, there's probably a pretty good likelihood he's going to sign out of high school," Anderson said.

Keilitz said a handful of programs — citing the likes of Stanford, Florida and Texas — at times manage to keep top-tier draft picks despite the extraordinary sums of money offered by the pros. As a recent example, the ABCA executive director pointed to Florida pitcher Karsten Whitson, who was the ninth overall pick of the 2010 draft and reportedly turned down more than $2 million from the San Diego Padres to play for the Gators.

"But there's not many of those (types of programs)," Keilitz said. "So you've got to go after the best players that you think that you can get that's not going to be signing a pro contract. But you don't want to not recruit (a top prospect) and have him not sign (with the pros) and then play for some other (college).

"It's really a difficult thing, having coached 20 years myself, of just knowing (where) that fine line might be."

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There is one tool that a Division I program can use — and many do — to lessen the impact of risk-taking on a probable high draft pick.

Although teams are limited to 11.7 scholarships per year-which they divide to fill out their rosters-programs can sign recruits even when they don't currently have available aid.

This maneuver — commonly referred to as oversigning — allows teams to be proactive in dealing with the two-fold repercussions of the draft. Teams not only can lose recruits to the pros but also current players with remaining college eligibility. Any player at a four-year college who has completed his junior year or turned 21 is eligible for the draft.

Rather than being vulnerable to draft-created roster holes with just weeks left before the start of school, teams will purposely oversign in their original recruiting classes.

"At least it gives you an opportunity to go out and get some other guys early on money that you anticipate that you're going to have from (drafted) guys signing," Keilitz said.

Of course, there are no guarantees that the draft will play out as a college program anticipates. If a player isn't drafted — or is but decides not to sign — coaches face some unsavory options to remain within the 11.7 scholarship limit. They could reduce the amount of promised aid to one or more players. Or, in extreme cases of oversigning, they could completely withdraw a player's partial scholarship.

And since the pro signing deadline isn't until Aug. 15, in extreme cases, some college players might not know their scholarship status until days before the start of classes.

For years, the Big Ten did not allow its baseball teams to oversign. In fact, according to Keilitz, the Big Ten was the only Division I conference with such a ban.

Starting with the 2009-10 school year, however, the Big Ten slightly loosened the ban and permitted members to annually oversign by one scholarship, which could be split between no more than two recruits.

It was a small concession to the reality that Big Ten schools were at a competitive disadvantage when they banned oversigning. And, to a degree, they still are since some conferences utilize oversigning far beyond the Big Ten's restricted use of the practice.

"Oversigning is very prevalent in most conferences, especially the power conferences," said Aaron Fitt, national writer for Baseball America. "Wish I could give you specifics, but teams ... really try hard to keep that part of it rather quiet."

In contrast, it's a topic Big Ten coaches remain outspoken about.

"I think we do it the right way," Boss Jr. said of the Big Ten's longtime reluctance to oversign. "The problem is, we're the only conference that does it so it made it difficult for us to compete.

"In a perfect world, I don't think it will be a problem if nobody was going to oversign, but that's not realistic. It's not going to happen."

Still, Big Ten coaches clearly remain uncomfortable with oversigning and its potential negative impact on players.

"From an ethics standpoint, it's not right, it's not fair," Hartleb said. "It's tough to go ask somebody to give up their (scholarship) money when a family's depending on it. I would not want somebody to do that to my family."

In fact, Hartleb and Boss Jr. said they had yet to oversign since the Big Ten began to allow it, while Anderson indicated he had done so in just one instance.

"I worry about going over (scholarship limits) because I don't want to call a kid in the summer and tell him I don't have his aid because (a draftee) didn't sign," Anderson said. "It hasn't happened to me yet, but I still worry about that."

But such reservations apparently are in the minority. At the NCAA Convention last January, when the Big Ten proposed legislation to prohibit oversigning in baseball, it was rejected by the membership.

Because the nationwide view differs from the Big Ten's on this issue, Keilitz thinks it's best for the conference to take a pragmatic stance on oversigning.

"Now, the Big Ten may argue, well, (banning oversigning is) the right thing to do," the ABCA head said. "And it may be the right thing to do. However, it certainly isn't helping the baseball programs. It puts them, quite frankly, at a huge disadvantage."

Does alma matter?

Some of MLB's best players were on display Tuesday during the All-Star Game. Did they take the college route to the majors? We have the answers:
American League
PITCHERS    COLLEGE
Josh Beckett, Boston    None
Aaron Crow, Kansas City    Missouri
Gio Gonzalez, Oakland    None
z-Felix Hernandez, Seattle    None
Brandon League, Seattle    None
x-Jon Lester, Boston    None
y-Alexi Ogando, Texas    None
Chris Perez, Cleveland    Miami (Fla.)
y-Michael Pineda, Seattle    None
x-David Price, Tampa Bay    Vanderbilt
x-Mariano Rivera, New York    None
y-David Robertson, New York    Alabama
y-Ricky Romero, Toronto    Cal State Fullerton
z-CC Sabathia, New York    None
z-James Shields, Tampa Bay    None
Jose Valverde, Detroit    None
z-Justin Verlander, Detroit    Old Dominion
y-Jordan Walden, Los Angeles    Grayson (Texas) CC
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles    Long Beach State
C.J. Wilson, Texas    Loyola Marymount

CATCHERS    COLLEGE
Alex Avila, Detroit    Alabama
Russell Martin, New York    Chipola (Fla.) CC
Matt Wieters, Baltimore    Georgia Tech
INFIELDERS    COLLEGE
Adrian Beltre, Texas    None
Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland    None
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit    None
Robinson Cano, New York    None
Adrian Gonzalez, Boston    None
x-Derek Jeter, N.Y. Yankees    None
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles    St. John's River (Fla.) CC
Paul Konerko, Chicago     None
y-Jhonny Peralta, Detroit    None
x-Alex Rodriguez, New York    None
y-Kevin Youkilis, Boston    Cincinnati

OUTFIELDERS    COLLEGE
Jose Bautista, Toronto    Chipola (Fla.) CC
Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota    None
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston    Oregon State
Curtis Granderson, N.Y. Yankees    Illinois-Chicago
Josh Hamilton, Texas    None
Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay    Florida Southern
Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox    Stanford

DESIGNATED HITTERS    COLLEGE
David Ortiz, Boston    None
Michael Young, Texas    Cal-Santa Barbara
National League
PITCHERS    COLLEGE
Heath Bell, San Diego    Rancho Santiago (Calif.) CC
z-Matt Cain, San Francisco    None
Tyler Clippard, Washington    None
y-Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh    Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia    None
z-Cole Hamels, Philadelphia    None
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh    None
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta    None
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles    None
y-Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta    Wallace State (Ala.) CC
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia    Arkansas
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco    Washington
Jonny Venters, Atlanta    Indian River (Fla.) CC
Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco    Kutztown (Pa.)
Brian Wilson, San Francisco    Louisiana State

CATCHERS    COLLEGE
Brian McCann, Atlanta    None
Yadier Molina, St. Louis    None
y-Miguel Montero, Arizona    None

INFIELDERS    COLLEGE
Starlin Castro, Chicago    None
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee    None
x-Chipper Jones, Atlanta    None
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati    None
x-Placido Polanco, Philadelphia    MDC Wolfson (Fla.) CC
x-Jose Reyes, New York    None
y-Scott Rolen, Cincinnati    None
Gaby Sanchez, Florida    Miami (Fla.)
y-Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco    None
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado    Long Beach State
Joey Votto, Cincinnati    None
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee    Southern (La.)

OUTFIELDERS    COLLEGE
Carlos Beltran, New York    None
Lance Berkman, St. Louis    Rice
x-Ryan Braun, Milwaukee    Miami (Fla.)
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati    None
y-Andre Ethier, Los Angeles    Arizona State
Matt Holliday, St. Louis    None
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles    None
y-Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh    None
Hunter Pence, Houston    Texas-Arlington
Justin Upton, Arizona    None
x-Shane Victorino, Philadelphia    None
x - Withdrew due to injury
y - Replacement
z - Sunday starter, ineligible