Tate: ND and UI like night and day

CHAMPAIGN – With no help from the zebras, who nullified two Connecticut touchdowns with holding calls in the final minutes, the Huskies put Notre Dame to bed (in double overtime) Saturday.

Some people think it matters, but it probably doesn't. They are teasing the constituency by saying a coaching decision hasn't been made because, if you'll excuse the expression, Charlie's fat is in the fire.

To retain Charlie Weis is to offend all those loyal, dues-paying alumni ... the same ones who influenced the Notre Dame administration to decline Big Ten overtures even though campus leaders liked the idea of joining the conference. At Notre Dame, football rules.

The intriguing aspect, from an Illinois perspective, is how differently these Midwestern universities view their gridiron operations. The basic considerations for head coaches are the same: (1) evaluation of performance, (2) fan support, (3) cost of making a change, (4) recruiting and (5) likelihood of future success. But the attitudes are oceans apart.

Let's review how two Midwestern schools view mediocrity.

Coaching performance

NOTRE DAME: As Ty Willingham found out, the Irish insist on results sooner than later, and the consecutive Weis audits of 3-9, 7-6 and 6-5 are unacceptable. The September loss to dysfunctional Michigan hit hard, and the narrow wins against Michigan State (33-30), Purdue (24-21) and Washington (overtime) created early uncertainties. Now the Irish travel to Stanford with three straight losses.

And they can't blame it on the quarterbacking. Jimmy Clausen has been outstanding. The overwhelming belief is the Irish need help at the top. And it is available. Even if Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops are out of reach, the Golden Dome could surely attract Pat Fitzgerald or Jim Harbaugh from schools with similar academic standards (Northwestern and Stanford) or get Cincinnati's red-hot Brian Kelly for less than Weis is receiving.

ILLINOIS: At one time or another, and sometimes in unison, Ron Zook's Illini have displayed shortcomings in the three areas of offense, defense and special teams. They are near the bottom in most Big Ten statistics and have caused fans to grumble about clock management. Quarterback has been musical chairs. Top recruits have underachieved. Three staff changes didn't help in what is now a 15-for-23 losing skid. UI talent is believed to be better than it is performing, and that can only be traced to the coaching.

Fan support

NOTRE DAME: Not to worry, the Irish have had only one non-sellout since 1966 and have jammed in 80,000-plus fans for every game since the stadium was expanded in 1997. This is a national institution. Such enthusiasm sets ultra-high, often-unreasonable expectations. Being simply bowl eligible is not enough.

ILLINOIS: When Ron Turner's club hit the skids in 2003-04, UI attendance dropped into the 40,000s. Crowds have been good this season, based mostly on preseason sales. UI marketing guru Chris Hanna is optimistic about 2010 because the home schedule brings Purdue, Indiana and Minnesota to Memorial Stadium, along with Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois ... all opponents that (in his opinion) the Illini could conceivably handle. No, this isn't overlooking Ohio State, which is always a strong draw. But Hanna may find that student and season tickets will fall after the disappointments of this season. There is a lot of unrest out there.

Cost of a change

NOTRE DAME: This is no factor whatsoever. As huge as the long-term Weis contract is, there'll be money to pay him off, what with Notre Dame's NBC-TV contract, the attendance revenue and the intense demand by wealthy alums to produce a winner. Irish beat writer Eric Hansen said it isn't clear what Weis will receive if, as Hansen expects, he is dumped. But Hansen believes the buyout is less than $10 million – and not the $18 million that has been rumored.

ILLINOIS: Zook is guaranteed $1.5 million for four years if he is removed, and this is a major consideration because the athletic department operates on a tight budget, and the university administration would expect the DIA to find contributors for the buyout and additional costs of change. And the price of competing for an in-demand prospect like Cincinnati's Kelly would be another major consideration. The pool of candidates for the UI job in no way compares to the people Notre Dame can attract.

Recruiting

NOTRE DAME: Weis had two five-star visitors on campus Saturday and has 18 commitments already. His freshman classes have ranked in the Top 15 for the last three years, Hansen noting: "Charlie has recruited well in spite of everything. He keeps bringing in good talent." Notre Dame remains an effective national recruiter regardless of who the coach is.

ILLINOIS: Only two programs in the nation's top 66 (as judged by Rivals.com) have fewer than 10 commitments, and Illinois is one of them. Not only that, but two of the UI's nine commits, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and cornerback Corey Cooper, are visiting elsewhere. Illinois will need a late push to get anywhere near Penn State (20 commits, ranked No. 3), Minnesota (23 commits) and Michigan (20 commits).

Said recruiting expert Tom Lemming: "The Illini are making the right contacts, but it's a different atmosphere this year. There is doubt in the air, and players are not jumping in the boat. Mike Locksley is gone, and he brought in a lot of difference-makers. There is always a certain amount of negative recruiting that goes on, and that increases when a team has problems."

Likelihood of success

NOTRE DAME: The recent losses to Navy, Pitt and UConn demonstrate Weis does not have the Irish moving in the right direction. Shabby defense and erratic special teams (another long return by UConn on Saturday) have drawn criticism. Furthermore, Clausen would be hard to replace if he elects to turn pro and, as a high NFL pick, probably will go. Still, the Irish figure to be highly competitive against future schedules, regardless of who the coach is.

ILLINOIS: Dark clouds outnumber the white ones. A slate that opens with Missouri in 2010 and requires the UI to start the Big Ten against Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State does not build optimism. The offense will be rebuilt without star guard Jon Asamoah, center Eric Block and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, quarterback Juice Williams, and receivers Chris Duvalt, Jeff Cumberland and almost certainly Arrelious Benn. Tackle Josh Brent heads a fourth-year class that has been weakened by attrition. The current freshman class appears average at best, and it remains to be seen whether help is coming. Orange-colored glasses are needed to focus on positives in 2010.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.

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