HQ prediction: Northwestern 32-28

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QUARTERBACKS

Check to Northwestern

Mike Kafka is known for his running, but he's a big part of the reason the Wildcats are second in the Big Ten in passing offense and 31st nationally. Illinois is last in the Big Ten and 99th nationally. Illinois' eight touchdown passes are a league low.

RUNNING BACKS

Check to Illinois

The by-committee approach must be working for the Illini, who have moved to fourth in the Big Ten and 25th nationally in rushing offense. The leading rusher for the Wildcats is Kafka, which is not a good sign. Northwestern's per carry average of 3.1 yards is 1.6 behind the Illini average.

RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

Check to Northwestern

The Wildcats have three players with more catches than Illinois leader Arrelious Benn, who has 29 catches. Former walk-on Zeke Markshausen leads Northwestern with 70 grabs, which is good for 14th nationally. He has help from converted quarterback Andrew Brewer (40 catches) and superback Drake Dunsmore (34).

OFFENSIVE LINE

Check to Illinois

Give the Illini a tiny edge based mostly on the inexperience of the Wildcats. Both teams struggle with pass protection, each giving up 27 sacks. Only Minnesota has allowed more sacks. But the Illini do a better job creating holes for the running backs and have had to deal with an unsettled quarterback situation.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Check to Northwestern

End Corey Wootton isn't having the same impact as last season, when he led the Wildcats with 10 sacks. But he still has to be accounted for. Thanks to Clay Nurse and Josh Brent, the Illini moved up the Big Ten sack list. But the rushing defense continues to sag. That's a strength for the Wildcats.

LINEBACKERS

Check to Illinois

Though it hasn't been easy, the Illini are learning to play without Martez Wilson. Ian Thomas leads the team in tackles and is eighth in the Big Ten. He is getting experience that will be big for him in 2010, when Wilson rejoins the unit. Quentin Davie and Nate Williams are first and third, respectively, for Northwestern in tackles.

SECONDARY

Check to Northwestern

Few doubt that Terry Hawthorne will become a star at cornerback, but he's still young. The Wildcats have the advantage of experienced cornerback Sherrick McManis, who leads the team with three interceptions. Illinois has four as a team, and just two by defensive backs.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Check to Illinois

Both teams have a major problem with one phase. For the Wildcats, it's punting. They rank last in the Big Ten in net average and 109th nationally. The Illini are just 4 of 10 on field goals, which could mean a switch from Matt Eller to Derek Dimke. Give the Illini a small edge for better kick coverage.

COACHING

Check to Northwestern

Though he is still early in his coaching career, Pat Fitzgerald has shown the ability to pull big upsets. The problem for the Wildcats has come in games against lesser teams. They shouldn't have lost to Syracuse or played a close game against Eastern Michigan.

PREDICTION

Check to Northwestern

The Wildcats have owned the Illini in recent years, winning five of the last six games between the schools. The permanent owners of the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk will take the Land of Lincoln Trophy too, winning 32-28 (N-G record: 5-4).

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