Tate: It's a tough sell

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CHAMPAIGN – When one-loss Missouri and Illinois teams don't sell out in St. Louis, it is a signal. When you scan the Assembly Hall's empty upper reaches, where UI students once packed the seats for Illini basketball, you begin to wonder: Where do we go from here?

These are just two examples, and they're primarily the result of poor play last season, but we face the fact that sports in America is heading into a period of pull-back uncertainty. With major banks, corporations and real estate in a historic free-fall, we see the Chicago White Sox cutting millions in salaries, teams other than the Yankees balking at the free agent market, the women's golf tour losing critical sponsorships and the Arena Football League closing for a year.

These are early signs of economy-wary leadership which, at the collegiate level, soon will hold meetings on how to reduce travel, cut staff and pinch pennies.

No one knows how far billions in interest-demanding loans will carry the economic decline. With this as backdrop and with no assurances how football attendance will be impacted, UI athletic director Ron Guenther builds an Illini football schedule into an unpredictable future, and his approach is questioned because the slate doesn't provide seven homes games featuring three supposed pushovers.

A touch of reality

Football is the engine that drives the $62 million Illini sports operation. Scheduling is important. And getting to a bowl game is crucial.

However, critics tend to make assumptions based on weak premises. Hold on a moment, that doesn't mean anyone cheers the idea of playing Fresno State and Cincinnati in late November. The UI's open dates are unfortunate, particularly with Ron Zook preferring a break before the Ohio State game.

But first, before we wade into this scheduling mish-mash, stand up. Show some grit. If the Illini are playing someone worth beating, why is that bad? And if they can't defeat Cincinnati, tip your hat. Don't whine because Guenther didn't schedule somebody weaker. Where is your competitiveness?

Now, first things first. Why fret about the back end when the locked-in front is almost suicidal? For the next two years, the Illini will open against Missouri in St. Louis, where they've lost four straight since 2002, and enter the Big Ten slate against Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Fussing about a trip to Cincinnati on Nov. 28 is like worrying about dying of old age when you already have congestive heart failure. Zook's determination to turn Illini fans into "believers" is a worthy goal, but anyone who believes Illinois will reach mid-October unscathed should check the odds in Las Vegas.

The second weak premise often expressed is that once Zook brings the Illini into the Top 25 (they entered the Rose Bowl last season at No. 13), they will stay there. Like, wow, we finally made it! Now we can taste the nectar forever! Wrong. This 5-7 season is an example of how difficult it is when you're a target. A sharp UI dropoff after a successful season has occurred too many times to think it is coincidental.

A century of Illini football coaches have watched their goals slip away, dating to 1904 when graduate coaches produced a 9-2-1 record. Check it out. The great Bob Zuppke was 3-13 in the years before World War II. Ray Eliot had three losing seasons in his last four and left Pete Elliott with scraps that led to a 15-game losing streak. Even John Mackovic, who posted the best winning percentage, lost four of the last six games he coached and was 8-8 in his last 16 (he departed before the 6-3 Hancock Bowl loss to UCLA).

Should Illini fans be optimistic? Sure. It's free, so why not? But Guenther has come to realize you can't pull UI fans away from their TV sets without decent draws, if even then. Any realist understands the deep-throated euphoria accompanying Zook's successful recruiting and the team's 2007 run will not necessarily be sustained by the diverse population making up a small-market (by Big Ten standards) operation.

A choice to make

UI fans don't want to watch Louisiana-Lafayette, even if it evolves into a 20-17 thriller.

Games of that nature are not high on anyone's agenda. As recently as 2007, Illinois' home opener against Western Illinois drew 48,301 paid, and not that many attended. If there are 15,000 empty seats, that's roughly $675,000 in unrealized income. Add a half-million guarantee for the opponent, and the UI nets considerably less than $1 million. By comparison, the Missouri game has a $1 million guarantee and now is providing about $1.3 million for each club, so you see why the St. Louis jaunt is attractive to both and at the same time high on national TV consideration.

But that's another story. Back to recent attendance figures. Last season's Rose Bowl team attracted 54,116 for the Nov. 17 finale against Northwestern. Despite construction, more seats were available, so by the standards of Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State, that's a "small- market" turnout.

Guenther is caught in a dilemma. He prefers to line up worthwhile games and at the same time balance the budget. Two years ago, in Zook's second year (2006), the UI drew 45,444 for Eastern, 40,657 for Syracuse and 34,328 for Ohio. Those in attendance were mostly loyal season ticket-holders, students and low-price end zone grabbers.

Going back further, an 8-4 UI team in 1999 blitzed Virginia 63-21 in Miami, returned Kurt Kittner, Luke Butkus and a solid squad, and drew 35,032 for the opener against Middle Tennessee. Two weeks later, they carried a six-game win streak against Cal and made it seven, 17-15, in front of 50,181.

Then two years later, coming off a rousing 34-22 defeat of Ohio State and carrying a six-game win streak into a bowl-impacting finale against Northwestern, the Big Ten champs drew 45,755 to witness a 34-22 triumph.

Zook's opener in 2005, an overtime defeat of Rutgers, drew barely 50,000, and the next game against San Jose State fell under that number.

And now, with recent examples of patsies filling Memorial Stadium, some say Guenther should bank on the experience of that single season when the long history of Illini football shouts otherwise and the future economy cries danger.

Do you like what Minnesota and Indiana are doing schedulewise? Do you prescribe to Hayden Fry's master plan? That's fine. Maybe the bum-of-the-week approach is workable. But what you're saying is Illinois isn't good enough to play a good schedule. Maybe that's true. But, regardless of a spotty history, that is a concession not everyone connected with UI football wants to make.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.

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