Tate: Zook on hot seat? That's absurd

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CHAMPAIGN – It's been a rough autumn for Ron Zook and the Illini. The team has fallen drastically short of expectations.

But regardless of what happens at Northwestern in Saturday's chilly finale – whether or not Illinois gains bowl eligibility – the time has come to sit back and let Zook work through the difficulties. He wasn't perfect when Ron Guenther hired him. That coach doesn't exist. But he is the primary workhorse who has lifted Illinois from the football dregs.

Good friend Mike Nadel, in his column Tuesday, makes points critical of Zook. Obviously, the coach's critics have grown inside Illini Nation. But they are overlooking the big picture. Consider that from 2003 through 2006, the Illini lost 37 of 45 games overall and 30 of 32 Big Ten games. Thirty of thirty-two! Think about it. The program was destitute.

Now, with that as background, did anyone think the arrows would fly straight up from there? Did you think the Illini would beat Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin every year? If you did, you were dreaming. So Illinois overachieved in reaching the Rose Bowl last season and, as is historically typical, fell back with the spotlight on it in 2008. Zook pushed the same buttons and got a different result in terms of key turnovers, special teams play and red-zone efficiency, all elements that were impossible to gauge in August.

The game is changing almost overnight, and it appears that some opponents practiced 7-on-7 short-passing drills all summer, added four linemen in the fall, and kept playing the same touch-football game. The percentage of completions seems to be soaring, and a conservative UI secondary was sometimes caught without an answer.

On the up and up

For the fandom, instead of leaving the stadium early and trying to forget each demoralizing rout in the 2003-06 era, we have advanced to scrutinizing and criticizing the debatable game-turning plays in a series of closely fought contests.

Like the second-team quarterback, the next coach becomes the most popular, because WE KNOW he'd do it differently, even if we don't know who he is.

Well, look around. Joe Tiller has worn out his welcome at Purdue, and Indiana doesn't know what to do about Bill Lynch. Michigan is already unhappy with Rich Rodriguez, and the Penn State campus is split on increasingly decrepit Joe Paterno. Go almost anywhere and you can get an argument on the head football coach. And as Michigan discovered this year and as Illinois has discovered in the past, the next guy may not be an improvement on the previous one.

Illinois is sending an increasingly higher level of talent on the field but is 5-6 despite outgaining eight of 11 opponents. They only fell short in yardage against Missouri by 17, Penn State by 50 and Wisconsin by 28. They outgained Minnesota by 238 yards and lost, Western Michigan by 78 and lost, and Ohio State by 101 and lost. For the season, they have 1,066 more yards than the opposition.

You may interpret these numbers as revealing tactical shortcomings, and maybe that's so. It is legitimate to question various aspects of game strategies. But what the numbers say is that, given a fresh start, the same UI coaches who led a 9-4 revival a year ago just might turn it back around in 2009. If offseason study allowed opponents to find weaknesses in UI blocking against the blitz and in defending the short pass, UI coaches have an offseason to solve those weaknesses.

At the least, they deserve the opportunity to take another shot at Missouri in St. Louis and seek bowl eligibility against a 2009 schedule that drops Wisconsin and Iowa and adds Purdue and Michigan State.

On the subject of talent, we often miss the point that even in their best recruiting years, the Illini are not running away from the league's perennial leaders. On paper, Ohio State will outrecruit Illinois this year and forever. Michigan will do the same. Those are built-in certainties. Nevertheless, Illinois has beaten Ohio State in 11 of the last 24 meetings, and Michigan is spiraling in a way that may be difficult to quickly reverse.

Any discussion of recruiting evolves into confusion. For example, Illinois has a two-star freshman (Jeff Allen) starting at right tackle. Among the four-star acquisitions, Reggie Ellis and Graham Pocic are redshirting, Cordale Scott has fallen behind less-touted receivers, and Hubie Graham is seeing backup time at tight end. Two as-yet unseen linebackers, Justin Staples and Evan Frierson, could become as valuable as any freshman as they wait for spring to compete for Brit Miller's spot.

No one can predict what 2009 will bring. But this much is clear: Zook has brought Illinois a long way in a short time, and the required modifications are doable. Unlike previous UI collapses, this team didn't fall apart for a lack of talent and physicality. It disappointed due to a not-every-year turnover disparity, to shoddiness in various aspects of the kicking game, and red-zone failures.

The good news is that Zook has a veteran squad returning and will bring in more quality athletes ... enough to win games if he can successfully address the 2008 breakdowns.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.

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