Tate: Illini projections were off

Illinois running back Daniel Dufrene, here trying to shrug off Penn State's Anthony Scirrotto, has been a capable replacement for the departed Rashard Mendenhall. By Carolyn Kaster

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Drummond, Hawthorne come up big

Recent "Fourth-and-blog" entries

Packing a punch

Then there was one

2008-2009 Illini Football Schedule

Date	Opponent	Time	Stations
Aug.30	vs. Missouri* L: 52-42	7:30 pm	ESPN, WDWS, WHMS
Sep.06	vs. Eastern Illinois W: 47-21	11 am	Big Ten Network, WDWS, WHMS
Sep.13	vs. Louisiana-Lafayette W: 20-17	11 am	Big Ten Network, WDWS, WHMS
Sep.27	at Penn State L: 38-24	7 pm	ABC, WDWS, WHMS
Oct.04	at Michigan W: 45-20	2:30 pm	ABC, WDWS, WHMS
Oct.11	vs. Minnesota L: 27-20	11 am	ESPN, WDWS, WHMS
Oct.18	vs. Indiana W: 55-13	7 pm	Big Ten Network, WDWS, WHMS
Oct.25	at Wisconsin L: 27-17	11 am	ESPN2, WDWS, WHMS
Nov.01	vs. Iowa W: 27-24	2:30 pm	ABC, WDWS, WHMS
Nov.08	vs. Western Michigan# L: 23-17	11 am	WDWS, WHMS
Nov.15	vs. Ohio State L: 30-20	11 a.m.	WDWS, WHMS, ESPN
Nov.22	at Northwestern L: 27-10	2:30 p.m.	WDWS, WHMS, BTN

* = at St. Louis; # = at Detroit

CHAMPAIGN – Let's begin by saying that 15 or more members of the nation's Top 25 would probably, like Illinois, have two losses if they had played Missouri and Penn State. Those two have erupted out of the 2008 gate. They are talented and explosive.

At the same time, it is significant that our perceptions of Illinois in August were strikingly different than they are now, a mere month later. Our perceptions became misconceptions. With Michigan looming on the horizon, it is time for an agonizing October reappraisal.

August perception: A deep, muscular defensive line would rate among the school's best.

Fact: After four games, Illinois is 11th in Big Ten scoring defense (32 points per game), and 10th in rushing defense while allowing opponents to complete 61 percent of their passes. With Sirod Williams ailing, D'Angelo McCray transferring and Reggie Ellis not in the rotation, coach Tom Sims doesn't have quite the quality depth anticipated. And the early absence of Josh Brent (five tackles Saturday) took a toll.

August perception: Carryover value from the bowl trip and the extra practice would be meaningful.

Fact: This is hard to judge. Bowls are overwhelmingly a good thing, but it isn't clear that Ron Zook's squad has taken a major step forward. This may be viewed differently if the Illini come on strong against Michigan, Minnesota and Indiana. So far, this team isn't as sharp as last year's.

August perception: Zook's highly-touted recruiting should begin to be evident.

Fact: Zook and his staff have done a terrific job for a "mid-market" Big Ten program. The talent has been upgraded. But even in their best years, the Illini don't outrecruit Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. One rating service lists only defensive tackle Corey Liuget among the conference's Top 20 freshmen, and ESPN's rating service gives just two Illini commits, East St. Louis end Terry Hawthorne and Chicago Leo tackle Lendell Buckner, grades of 80 or better, while Ohio State has 10 and Michigan eight at that number or higher. Rating services are notoriously erratic, but it should be obvious that while the Illini are outdoing most conference rivals, they're still trailing the perennial leaders.

August perception: Juice Williams was throwing the football with better touch.

Fact: He is, at times. Williams is completing 58.6 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Not great, but this compares favorably with 59.4 by Northwestern Player of the Week C.J. Bacher, 57.4 by Purdue's Curtis Painter, 46.5 by Michigan State's Brian Hoyer, 58.5 by Indiana's Kellen Lewis and 48.4 by Michigan's Steven Threet. The Big Ten leader is Adam Weber of Minnesota at 69.9 percent. Juice is still a better runner than passer, as was clear at Penn State. The perception has always been that Illinois will go as far as Juice can take them, and that hasn't changed. Illini coaches show no indication of turning to backup Eddie McGee.

August perception: Rashard Mendenhall is not replaceable.

Fact: Mendenhall was outstanding. But his absence is not an Illini problem. Daniel Dufrene is pounding out 99 yards per game, and he and freshman Mikel Leshoure averaged more than 7 yards in 17 carries at Penn State. Illinois still has a strong running game and the offensive line is coming along. Biggest disappointment is the inability to shake Arrelious Benn free out of the backfield (two runs at Penn State netted zero).

August perception: While we saw good signs in spring, there were questions whether Michael Hoomanawanui would contribute to the aerial game. He had only five catches the last two years.

Fact: Hoomanawanui has been a bright spot. He has 12 receptions, several at crucial times. He has become more dependable than his former tight end teammate, Jeff Cumberland, who is yet to make an impact after missing two games with an injury.

August perception: New linebackers and mobile safeties will compensate for key graduation losses.

Fact: It hasn't happened. Brit Miller has been outstanding in the middle, leading the Big Ten with 11 tackles per game. But he left a hole on the outside. Linebacking depth is scary, particularly in the future, and the safeties haven't yet done the job that Justin Harrison, Kevin Mitchell and Justin Sanders did. Michigan State's Otis Wiley, with four interceptions, has one more than the Illini team, and one of those was by a defensive end, Derek Walker.

August perception: Special teams are run-of-the-mill in terms of punting, kicking, coverage and returns.

Fact: Coverage has allowed long tide-turning kickoff returns by Missouri and Penn State. Meanwhile, Benn is averaging just 15 yards on six kickoff returns. Anthony Santella is 10th in Big Ten punting with a 38.6 average, and Matt Eller's placement work has been acceptable.

Conclusion: Illinois is a good football team that can send the arrows shooting up in October. That said, the last month has seen more arrows pointing down than up. Perhaps that was because we overrated the defensive unit in the first place. Or maybe we haven't given the team enough time to determine which way it is headed.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.

Comments

Gee Loren, I can't believe you didn't criticize the best AD in the country for scheduling Missouri instead of a cupcake. If Illinois plays a cupcake, the team is 3-1 and still ranked.

Posted by MarkHoekstra on September 30, 2008 at 7:59 AM | Suggest Removal

Nobody expected Missouri to be a national power when the braggin rights game was agreed to; so to sit and cry about playing Missouri first game of the year holds no water. When it was first agreed; Missouri looked like a cupcake.

What is being advocated by MarkHoekstra and others is a schedule that resembled Kansas State in their prime and Minnesota when they were decent. All produced respectable records but were not taken seriously...

I'm just as frustrated as everyone else; I am tired of seeing Illinois drop the year after a bowl season but let's be realistic...This year's schedule did not bode well for a return to the Rose Bowl. On the contrary; I expected a good team this year and a return to a bowl which would be a lot better than Turner was ever to do following a good year.

Posted by dguire on September 30, 2008 at 9:59 AM | Suggest Removal

One thing is agreed. Our two losses are to Top 10

teams (neither at home). We've got to win one of the big road games (WI or MI), and Saturday is the best shot I think.

Posted by walker on September 30, 2008 at 10:41 AM | Suggest Removal

dguire, Illinois has only been to 5 bowl games in 16 years under Football Guy Ron Guenther. Scheduling is definitely part of the reason.

Would you rather be at a lower tier bowl game in December, giving the team another 2 weeks of practice, or staying home because Coach Guenther decided to play Top 10 teams in the nonconference schedule?

Posted by MarkHoekstra on September 30, 2008 at 1:42 PM | Suggest Removal

OK dguire, since Missouri has been pretty darn good now for about 6 years, why would our 'esteemed/His Excellency' A.D. pony-up more games with Missouri? Put that one in your crack pipe and smoke it!!!

As for your Kansas State reference, I would LOVE to be known as the Bill Snyder/Kansas State program of the Big 10. Snyder had a great run there and put them on the national map. At the end of the day, it is about winning games, but our boneheaded A.D. is too concerned about playing the top programs.

Why not just forego our home schedule every year and play on the road? Hell, just scrap Memorial Stadium and be known as the only D-1 team to play every game on the road. Obvious that Guenther thinks he is innovative with how he schedules things. Why not take it to the full extreme and simply play 12 games on the road each year?

I keep waiting for Guenther to schedule the likes of Florida, USC, Auburn, and Georgia. At the rate he is going, it won't be long before he does.

Again, dguire, you are the epitome of an Illini fan. You just sit back and take it, while saying, "Thank you sir, may I have another!"

Each day that goes by is one day closer to when His Excellency retires.

Posted by IlliniHimey on September 30, 2008 at 1:51 PM | Suggest Removal

IlliniHimey; you're a tool, whatever ax you have to grind against Guenther is getting old. You cry and whine like a little baby every week. Please post some original new thought other than the dribble you post every week.

Anybody who knows me will know that I don't make excuses for Illinois sports, especially football. I've been going to games since Moeller was a coach and have seen some real crap on the field. I will never understand why Illinois can't field a competitive program year in and year out...But to whine and cry (like you do) over Ron Guenther gets old. Are you a disgruntled former employee of his?

Anyway; it's cool to critize the program and demand better...It just gets old to hear you cry about the same stuff.

Posted by dguire on September 30, 2008 at 2:09 PM | Suggest Removal

MarkHoekstra,

Who's to say Illinois won't make a bowl this year? I believe they will...I think a bowl game this year (regardless of the bowl) will be a successful year. The key is consistency, which as you have pointed out has been lacking...

You're right, 5 bowl games in 16 years is bad...I'm not excusing Guenther; he bares the burden for his hiring decisions...As far as schedule; I would rather play teams that cause a buzz than three yawners that do not give you any gauge on where your team is before the Big Ten.

Poor coaching has been the issue these past 16 years and Guenther should bare the blame for that. Tepper and Turner were horrible hires and they decimated this program like Blackmen and Moeller did prior to White coming aboard. Illinois will NEVER be Ohio State or Michigan; but they can be like Wisconsin.

Posted by dguire on September 30, 2008 at 2:15 PM | Suggest Removal

to be the best you have to beat the best...i'd love to schedule a home and home with a florida/auburn/usc...these are the types of games that give players/fans something to look forward to all off-season and at camp rantoul...i would rather have my team tested in week 1, play a great opponent, and see where we're at...win that game and you’re on your way, lose it and you can identify your weaknesses and get some valuable big game experience under you belt prior to league play starting…why would you hide?

are you supposed to entice recruits with an opener on the big ten network against wheat tech or the prime time headliner on national tv to start the year…

Posted by thompson07 on September 30, 2008 at 2:42 PM | Suggest Removal

Hey dguire: Glad to know I get your blood pressure up. Where do you and His Excellency Ron Guenther spend the holidays together?

As for my commentary on Guenther, it will end when he ends, as in his tenure as AD. Then, he can buy a boat and sail into the sunset with his greatest hire ever- Teresa Grentz!

Posted by IlliniHimey on September 30, 2008 at 2:42 PM | Suggest Removal

Lighten up a bit on Bob Blackman,,Jim Valek was thrown under the bus after he had to inherit the slush fund team, Blackman had nothing here when he came,,but he made us a respectable member of the "Little Eight" at least by the time he left. I will never get over those terrible new uniforms and helmets Blackman brought in for a "new look", we have had terrible uniforms every since.

Posted by Vogel on September 30, 2008 at 2:46 PM | Suggest Removal

I'm with dguire and thomson07. I can live with a home and home series with a top 20 team, or a neutral site Missouri game and have something to look forward to and really be able to evaluate if we are up there with the top teams. If the difference between us making a bowl or not comes down to having to convince myself to wake up on Saturday in time to catch four games against Eastern Illinois to start the season, I'd rather just miss the bowl game. At that level of bowl ga

Posted by raman on September 30, 2008 at 4:27 PM | Suggest Removal

If the difference between us making a bowl or not comes down to having to convince myself to wake up on Saturday in time to catch four games against Eastern Illinois to start the season, I'd rather just miss the bowl game. At that level of bowl game, you just can't get excited. Even the teams don't get excited - those bowl games are mostly decided by which team has already packed it in for the year.

Me, I'd rather have a game to look forward to early in the year than at the end. I'd rather spend the summer talking about whether we could beat a top 5 Mizzou team than to spend December talking about whether we can beat New Mexico State in the Toilet Bowl. There is no comparison.

Posted by raman on September 30, 2008 at 4:28 PM | Suggest Removal

It's the same old story with Loren. He drinks the Kool-aid in August and the vinegar in October. If he sticks to the script, next he'll be chastizing the fans for their unrealistic expectations and subsequent complaining, even those it was Loren's training camp articles that fueled those expectations to begin with.

Posted by IlliniDan on September 30, 2008 at 5:37 PM | Suggest Removal

dequire said: " I will never understand why Illinois can't field a competitive program year in and year out..."

Perhaps when you only go to a bowl game every third or fourth year, it makes it hard to attract sufficient talent to compete. Scheduling non-conference games where your consistently the underdog or a pick-em, significantly lessens the chances that you'll be bowl eligible.

One of the inherent advantages of being a BCS conference team is the ability to schedule yourself a 3 or 4 win cushion in your quest for a bowl game. Unfortuately, it's an advantage that Guenther has decided to annually fritter away for no good reason. Playing Mizzou is bad enough, but why we're traveling to Mobile to play Southern Miss or to Detroit to play Western Michigan is incomprehensible. No other AD in the Big Ten would ever schedule those games.

Posted by IlliniDan on September 30, 2008 at 5:48 PM | Suggest Removal