I was looking at some old pictures, and there was one of Henson, and it made me ask this question to myself.

I think it is definitely possible, and most likely the only reason it doesn't happen is because Weber decides to retire before he passes up Lou.

The numbers:
- Henson had 423 wins at Illinois
- Weber already has 152 wins at Illinois in 6 years (an average of 25.3 a year)

Weber was born in 1956, and he is 53 right now. So let's say he coaches until he is 65 (definitely possible), that would be 12 more seasons. In those 12 years he would need to average 22.6 wins per season. Definitely possible given the more games in college basketball now.

Just thinking about the way things are going, I think he will eventually be Illinois' winningest basketball coach.

you just upset a few people with that scenario

A lot can happen in twelve years. If he averages 25 wins a year, that cuts it to 10 or 11 years. Average means he could have a 30-win season, balanced by a down season of 20 wins.

I think he will do it...especially so if his recruiting keeps going at close to the current success rate.

Only the idiots who refuse to acknowledge they were wrong about him. :lol:

You are right, alot can happen in 12 years. However, it does certainly look like Weber is a threat to that record. I'd love to see it!

The win total is definetly achievable given more games, exempt tournaments, Big 10 tournament, expanded ncaa tournament, easier 1st/2nd round ncaa tournament games, etc.

What I would most love to see from Weber is consistent tournament success. He has a chance to really turn around what has been the biggest knock on UI hoops and I think he has a shot of doing it.

Granted these are very big stretch goals but consider the following:

UI is #18 in all time NCAA tournament wins with 38 but #42 in winning percentage at 0.567 (behind Purdue, WI, MI, OSU, IU in that order bottom to top).

The very best programs and coaches can win 70% or greater of tournament games.

If Weber could make 10 tournaments during his remaining years at UI, and average a 70% winning percentage (an average of 2.3 wins per loss), he would improve the program by 23 tournament wins to 61 all time and improve the tournament winning percentage to greater than 60%.

Of course other programs will continue to win, but as of today 60 tournament wins would be tied with IU and LOUI for #6 all time. A > 60% winning percentage is also top 30 all time.

Weber's NCAA tournament record is 10-7 (0.588) including the Sweet16 run at SIU. Assuming a 60% winning percentage spread over 10 tournaments (average of 1.5 wins per loss) would equate to 15 remaining tournament wins for Weber which doesn't get me too excited. But of course I admit to being jaded and desperate for NCAA tourney success.

Of course even making an additional 10 NCAA tournaments would be a great accomplishment for Weber and most programs would be ecstatic with that result. But winning at or below 60% of tournament games is basically average for a top 20 program. Improving that to 70% makes you elite.

Playing devil's advocate I will say no. In the court of public opinion I think he will go down as the best coach this program has ever had, but he will not catch Lou in the win's department. Win's are going to be tougher to come by in the next 4-5 years with a much improved B10. I don't think he will coach until he is 65 and if he does, averaging 23 wins a season over that time is going to be tough to do.

Seems likely to me. If he keeps averaging 25 a year, he only needs 11 more years to pass him. Hard to imagine we'll have another 37 win season, but it's certainly possible we could see some around 30 and it's hard to believe we'll see less than 20 wins anytime soon with Weber's coaching and the talent on the team.

We had 24 wins last year with a mediocre team. Averaging 25 for the next several years ought to be easy. Just adding one one more win a year (first round NCAA) will add a bunch.

Weber is a longevity, blue-collar kind of guy. I expect him to coach at least 10 more years, and, if his health holds up, till he's 65 and has the Illinois win record.

I don't think the Big Ten is going to be much improved. There's some strength at the top (namely MSU and Ohio State), but other than them (and the beloved) nobody is setting the recruiting world on fire. Minnesota looks they should stay solid and Indiana and Purdue should do the same, but none of them look like they have the makings of perennial top 10 teams. You get beyond those 6 and the Big Ten looks pretty mediocre, Iowa sucks, PSU sucks, NU sucks and Michigan and Wisconsin just don't seem to be improving that much. I don't know. I don't follow recruiting that closely anymore, so maybe I've missed some commits in 2011 class, but I just don't see most of the Big Ten getting that much better.\

And I don't think 23 wins is that hard anymore. This year we have 13 non-con games (the majority of which are against creampuffs), 18 Big Ten games, 1-4 BTT games and (potentially) 1-6 NCAA tournament games. That's 32 games that we're guaranteed to play.

no.

at the rate he's going now, obviously he's got a very good shot.

there are just way too many things that can happen from here on out.

if he gets to 300 or 350 i'll probably change my vote ;)

as you said, the added games help a lot. a 25 win season doesn't mean what it used to mean

I hope he does. At least one of our major sports programs needs stability combined with success.

I hope so. Coaching 18 straight years in this day and age would be a sign of things going well for the Illinois basketball program.

I would say it's around 50-50 he will do it. I remember you Brumby saying that any coach at Illinois that doesn't make the NCAA tournament two years in a row should be fired a year or so ago. So what are the odds of that? At Illinois, that hasn't happened since Henson in the early 90s I believe. This is combined with slightly less chance that Weber would move to another school or the Pros like Self and Kruger.

Regardless if he does or does not, Weber has brought stability and success to the program already.

It did not happen in the early 90s.

In '91 we weren't eligible due to probation from Satan. We had a very good record that year and would have been an at-large team no doubt.

We've missed in '92, '96, '99, and 2008.

Did Henson ever miss the NCAAs in the 80s?

Not after the expansion to 64 teams. Henson missed the tourney in '80 and '82 (when there were only 48 teams) and in every year prior to '80 (when there were even fewer teams).

See - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Figh...%27s_basketball

It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'll bet you $20.

Also, welcome back from your sabbatical.

By then $20 will be worth $5, so sure. :-)

He might do it, but 423 wins is a pretty big handful. I have a hard time envisioning Weber leaving or being fired at any point in the foreseeable future, but 20 something years at one school is a long time. We'll see.

agree completely

If RG were going to stay as AD, I would whole heartedly agree that Weber will probably break Lou's record. However, a new AD may be quicker to push Weber out or fire him. Especially, if he has his own guy that he wants to give the job to.

Any new AD who would seriously consider firing a Bruce Weber so he can have "his own guy" sounds like someone who is prime to drive the entire DIA into the ground, because he clearly doesn't have a clue as to what's best for this basketball school's basketball program.

Or, to speak in terms more timely with current IB fanbase sentiments, he'd make Detlef long for the days of Ron Guenther again.

I don't see this happening unless Bruce struggles again. With the recruits he is bringing in the future appears bright.