On Women's Basketball

Thanksgiving leftovers

Posted by: Tony Bleill

Friday, November 28, 2008 6:23 PM

Let's start with the obvious: Two heartbreaking defeats in Cancun in two days for the Illinois women, a 59-57 overtime decision against Montana and a 62-60 loss to South Dakota State after blowing a 15-point second-half lead.

If those defeats seem a little too familiar, they should. A year ago, Illinois lost by 1 to Penn State, 1 to Ohio State, 2 to Iowa, 3 to Michigan State, 5 to Minnesota, 2 to Wisconsin, 3 to Michigan ... you get the picture. That string of narrow defeats left a feeling that the Illini were a bit snakebitten, nothing more. But now you start to wonder: What's going on here? Is there a missing ingredient, a concrete reason why Illinois has been so poor in down-to-the-wire games? I don't have an answer, but so many winnable games going awry have to provoke some thought. If you have any ideas, throw them at me (tbleill@news-gazette.)

--Time for your weekly Kelsey Bone Fix ...

The Sugar Land, Texas, superstar had one of those career-defining moments on Monday. Bone, ranked first among the nation's prep seniors by Blue Star, squared off against Brittney Griner, ranked No. 1 by ESPN HoopGurlz. In the championship game of a tournament in Houston, Bone's Dulles High team beat Griner's Nimitz squad 64-63. According to reports, Baylor signee Griner (6-foot-8) got the better end of the matchup. Griner had 24 points, 12 rebounds, 11 blocked shots, six assists, three steals and a dunk. Bone (6-foot-5) had 18 points and five rebounds.

Griner, by the way, recently set a national high school record with 25 blocks in a game.

--I brought this up the other day because it happened in the UI-Temple game. At one point in the second half, Illinois took what I consider to be The Worst Shot in Basketball. And no less a basketball mind than Rick Pitino is with me on this one.

What is it? A 19-footer. The worst shot in basketball -- in the women's game -- is a shot in which the player has a foot on the three-point line, which is 19 feet, 9 inches from the basket. (It's now 20-9 in the men's game.) It's the worst shot in basketball because if you step back a few inches behind the line, you have the opportunity to get 50 percent more value on your shot -- from a two-pointer to a three-pointer.

What surprised me more was UI coach Jolette Law's reaction after the game. While there was no doubt the Illini were shooting far too many perimeter jumpers, Law seemed to be equally upset that her team was shooting from too far a distance. "(Temple was) packing it in so much that you didn't even have to shoot a three," Law said. "Could have stepped right inside and shot a 17-footer."

Stay with me here. By stepping inside the arc, you're only marginally improving your chances to make the shot. But you're also giving up 50 percent of your potential points on the play. Now, think about it: By taking a step inside that three-point arc to 17 feet, are you that much more likely to make the shot? No way.

Let's say you're a 33 percent shooter from beyond the arc. In theory, you'd have to be a 50 percent shooter inside the arc to score the same number of points. How many people are 50 percent shooters inside the arc? Hardly any -- and the overhwhelming majority of those are post players who never get near the 17-foot range.

For any guard, it makes much more sense to shoot a three-point shot as opposed to a 17- or 18- or 19-footer. It's just a matter of math.

 

 

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