Some analysis from last night's debacle at the Assembly Hall and a season headed south ...

--I was wrong.

In the preseason, I predicted that Illinois would finish fifth in the Big Ten.

I was wrong.

After the nonconference games, I revised my predictions and put Illinois fourth.

I was wrong. (Boy, I hope my wife is reading this.)

It seems so clear now, of course, that Illinois won't be finishing in the top half of the Big Ten. Teams that are destined to finish among the league's top half don't lose on their home court to the worst team in the league, one that was coming off a drubbing at Purdue, had lost four straight, was down to eight scholarship players, etc, etc.

At 3-5 in the league -- and with three of their next four games on the road -- the Illini will almost assuredly be playing on Day 1 of the Big Ten tournament and, barring four wins in four days in Indy, will be returning yet again to the WNIT, their old pal from days gone by. It is a disheartening turn for the program, which appeared -- perhaps somewhat briefly -- to be headed on an upward arc with the infusion of six heralded freshmen in August.

I was wrong.

Illinois has myriad problems right now, and it shows few signs of being able to get them righted before March. For a program that aims to use defense as its staple, defensive breakdowns have been commonplace. How does Wisconsin's Tara Steinbauer, who averages fewer than nine points a game, get 23 against Illinois? How does Iowa repeatedly drive-and-kick for open three-pointers? Why does Ohio State's Jantel Lavender get single-coverage in the post in the teams' first matchup?

Then there is the offense, which, since Lori Bjork's departure, has not had a consistent perimeter threat. Illinois shoots 30 percent on three-pointers (last in the Big Ten) and routinely gets outscored in that area. In the current age of big-time college basketball -- in which the three-point shot plays a critical role -- that's too much of a disadvantage to overcome on a regular basis, no matter how good your defense is. And Illinois' isn't very good: The Illini also rank last in the Big Ten in field goal percentage defense for three-pointers.

There was, however, one thing I got right. When the Super Six were signed, sealed and delivered, I was often asked how much of an impact the group would have. Given historical trends, I often answered with some version of, "It is more than likely that one will get hurt, one will transfer, one won't pan out and the others will be productive players to varying degrees." Little did I know that the injury (Amber Moore) and transfer (Destiny Williams) part of the equation would be filled before we even got through the first semester.

As I suggested when it happened, Moore's injury has been a major loss. Her outside shooting is sorely missed. Based on her substitution pattern, it is clear Jolette Law has lost confidence in Macie Blinn, who didn't even get in the game at Wisconsin and has averaged 12 minutes in Big Ten play. With the exception of Moore, the lack of perimeter shooting hasn't been addressed in recruiting and that problem area has come back to haunt the Illini in a major way. Consider the most recent Ohio State game: The Buckeyes went 9 of 18 on threes. Illinois was 4 of 16. That's a 15-point difference, and the final margin was 11 (72-61). You can do the math. Unless and until the Illini can become a more consistent and productive team on the perimeter, it will put enormous pressure on its defense to carry the day, as well as forcing itself to live under the constraints of a one-dimensional offense. Those limitations might be enough to get by during the nonconference season, when opponents don't know your tendencies as well. But in conference play, when there are no secrets and opponents have scouted you to the hilt, those flaws are exposed. And make no mistake, Illinois is getting exposed big-time right now.

--The specific problem against Iowa was the Hawkeyes' ability to drive-and-kick to open perimeter shooters.

The Illini faced one overriding decision: Do they use their helpside defenders to stop the Hawkeyes' penetration (most notably from Kachine Alexander and Jaime Printy) or do they let their on-ball defenders try to handle the dribbler without any aid, thus sticking close to Iowa's perimeter threats?

The Illini sometimes seemed uncertain which way to go. Alexander or Printy or Kamille Wahlin had consistent success driving into the lane and then dishing to a lonely teammate on the arc, and the result was often a back-breaking three-pointer (Iowa hit 9 of 20). Or, if the UI's on-ball defender couldn't handle the dribbler, the Hawkeye just took it to the hoop and scored herself. Iowa shot 51 percent, an astounding figure for a team that ranks next-to-last in the Big Ten in shooting.

Asked about it afterward, Law said, "It's the little things we've been talking about from Day 1. Talking on defense. Calling out screens. It's nothing magical. Locating the shooter. Just basic things, every day that we talk about and address.

"I hope one day that the light goes on and they decide, 'OK, this is what we need to do to win ballgames.'"

Law's message is consistent. She preaches it every day. But given the results on the court, it is clear that the message isn't being received or absorbed or understood. Something is getting lost in translation.