Into the Big Ten season

We'll have a Big Ten season preview in Sunday's News-Gazette and IlliniHQ. Until then, some thoughts on the state of the conference and the UI ...

--If there's one glaring omission from the Illini's resume these days, it's a quality win. So, where might that be accomplished? You can start with Monday's game against No. 6 Ohio State. If that doesn't work out, the Illini get another shot at the Buckeyes on Jan. 14. Then there's a trip to Michigan State on Feb. 18. The Spartans are ranked 16th. But here's the irony for the Illini: the good news is they don't have to play the Spartans twice, a nice break from the Big Ten schedule-maker. The bad news is that setup limits their opportunities at an attention-grabbing victory, a resume-builder that would undoubtedly impress the NCAA selection committee.

Unfortunately, the Big Ten schedule will offer few chances for Illinois to get a victory that would impress the committee. Things can change, obviously. Some teams might be better than we thought -- Northwestern? Michigan? -- and a UI victory against those teams would be more impressive than it might originally appear. Time will tell. But at this point, it seems the Illini better win one of those three games against OSU and MSU to paint themselves in a better light before Selection Monday.

--If you had any doubt that this isn't a typical Purdue team, it should have ended when this score trickled in Monday night: Gardner-Webb 56, Purdue 55. IN MACKEY ARENA. The Boilermakers have lost to Dayton, Georgetown, Pepperdine, Virginia, Northwestern and Gardner-Webb. More on the Boilers' struggles in Sunday's package.

--Where does Illinois fit in the Big Ten? It's quite dangerous to hazard a guess, given the parity that seems to exist among at least a half-dozen teams. At this point, it's safe to say that Iowa and Purdue are looking at second-division finishes. Ohio State and Michigan State almost assuredly will finish at the top. But it's awfully hard to separate Illinois, Penn State, Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Those six teams figure to be battling for -- probably -- no more than two NCAA tournament bids, three at the most.

I know I'm going to end up regretting these predictions -- nothing like making yourself look silly -- but here's my guess. And it really is a guess:

1. Ohio State; 2. Michigan State; 3. Minnesota; 4. Illinois; 5. Northwestern; 6. Michigan 7. Penn State; 8. Wisconsin; 9. Purdue; 10. Indiana; 11. Iowa.

By March 1, I will disavow all knowledge of these picks.

--Keep hearing that freshman Brianna Jones (strained Achilles) will be back for next week's games. Meanwhile, freshman guard Amber Moore is scheduled to have surgery after the holidays on her torn ACL.

--If the vote was taken today, Illinois' Karisma Penn would be one of the frontrunners -- along with Michigan's Dayeesha Hollins -- for Big Ten Freshman of the Year. And if Penn wins, it will be a rarity. Illinois has had one Big Ten FOY: Mandy Cunningham in 1991.

--The biggest concern for Illinois heading into next week's three-game stretch: turnovers. Illinois had 20 against Oakland, and that's way too many against a team that doesn't apply great pressure. Over its last four games, Illinois has averaged 19 turnovers. It is a bad sign that the Illini have committed nearly as many turnovers as they have forced (Illinois 188, opponents 189). If that ratio doesn't improve, Illinois might make my prediction of a fourth-place finish look ridiculous. But here's how bad things are in the Big Ten: There are six teams WORSE than the Illini in turnover margin. And one of those teams is Michigan State.

--A reminder: If you want to see women's college hoops at its finest, tune into ESPN2 at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday for No. 1 Connecticut against No. 2 Stanford. There's a very good chance this is a preview of the national championship game. These are clearly the two best teams in college hoops.

 

 

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