The Illinois softball team begins play tomorrow at the NCAA Regionals in Columbia, Missouri.  The host Tigers are the top seed in this region, and the #9 seed overall in the tournament.  The Illini are the #2 seed in the region, while DePaul and Creighton round out the four-team field.  DePaul coach Eugene Lenti says this is the most balanced region in the entire NCAA field, and he may very well be correct.  Here's a look at the chances for all four teams this weekend:

Missouri

Why the Tigers can win: Missouri won their regional as a host last season, advancing all the way to the Women's College World Series for the first time since 1994.  In the process, they defeated two of the teams in this region, DePaul and Illinois.  The Tigers have also shown they can beat some of the best teams in the country this year, as they have wins over #2 Michigan, #3 Arizona and #4 Alabama.  They've also got home field advantage, where Missouri went 26-3 this season.

Why they might not: The Tigers may be without their top pitcher this season, sophomore Chelsea Thomas.  Thomas is 12-1 with a 1.72 ERA, but hasn't pitched since March 21 against Northwestern.  She was the winning pitcher in all four of Mizzou's victories over the top five opponents mentioned above.  There has been no official word on her status for this weekend.  There is a bit of a dropoff from Thomas to the Tigers' other two starting pitchers, Kristin Nottelmann and Jana Hainey.

Illinois

Why the Fighting Illini can win: Illinois has the most potent offense in this four-team field, with a team batting average of .329.  Illinois also sports three individual players with batting averages above .400: 2B Danielle Zymkowitz, OF Hope Howell and 1B Meredith Hackett.  Couple that offense with the solid pitching of sophomore Monica Perry and freshman Pepper Gay, and Illinois might be the most well-rounded team in this region.

Why they might not: The other three teams in this field have a combined ten Women's College World Series appearances.  The Illini have none.  Will that lack of experience hurt the Illini during pressure situations?  None of the players on this team have ever beaten Missouri (0-1) or DePaul (0-6 since 2007).  Illinois and Creighton have never met.

DePaul

Why the Blue Demons can win: DePaul has won 17 of its last 19 games, including a win over then #17 Illinois and a doubleheader sweep of then #23 Notre Dame.  The Blue Demons are the Big East regular season champions, and they've advance to the Women's College World Series four times since 1999.  They may also have the best pitcher in the field in Becca Heteniak, who has compiled a 1.77 ERA and 204 strikeouts in just 177.2 innings of work.

Why they might not: The Blue Demons have a balanced offense, but not a dominating one.  DePaul's 39 homeruns are the fewest in this region, so they will likely have to string together hits to get runs across the plate.  DePaul averages 4.78 runs per game, compared to 7.02 for Illinois and 6.33 for Missouri.

Creighton

Why the Bluejays can win:  Like DePaul, Creighton is a hot team entering the regionals, winning 23 of its last 28 games, including the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.  If DePaul's Heteniak isn't the regional's best pitcher, it might be Creighton's Tara Oltman.  She is 32-12 with a 1.62 ERA and 281 strikeouts in 268.2 innings.  You can win a three-day tournament with one hot pitcher.  The Bluejays can also strike quickly, with 66 homeruns.  That's the most in this four-team field.

Why they might not: The Creighton offense can be feast or famine.  Despite a wealth of power, the Bluejays only bat .244 as a team and average 4.5 runs per game per game, both the lowest in the regional.  There's also a big dropoff from Oltman to Creighton's #2 pitcher Kylie Hovinga who has a 4.57 ERA in 79.2 innings.

Regular readers of this blog know that I tend to make predictions.  However, with a field this competitive, I'm at a bit of a loss.  I don't think Missouri is quite the team they were last season, but they're still very good and playing at home.  DePaul excels in low scoring pitchers' duals, but can struggle to score at times.  Illinois has the most potent offense, but lacks experience in the postseason.  Of the four teams, I think only Creighton is at a distinct disadvantage entering play tomorrow.  I don't know who will win, but I think it will be fun.  Hope you can listen to every Illinois game this weekend on WDWS.  Thanks for reading.

bmoline@wdws.com