For the Fans

MNS results, My Prediction, Thoughts, and Prediction Standings

Posted by: Tom Young

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 7:28 AM

After losing five in a row, Illinois has back-to-back wins and they are starting to look like the team we were expecting to see out of training camp.  Juice Williams was starting to play pretty well, but an ankle injury has him listed as “doubtful” for Saturday’s game.  It’s time for Jacob Charest to step in.  Here’s a chance for him to have a number of snaps with the 1^st team in practice, and this will hopefully lead to a greater number of plays for him to run against Northwestern.  According to the “Monday Night Sim”, Charest struggles, and Northwestern comes to Champaign and dominates.

 

NCAA 10 on XBOX 360

 

NORTHWESTERN 41       ILLINOIS 10

 

There was a point when a score like this seemed very likely against the Wildcats.  With the way things are going now, I would be shocked if this were to happen.  As you would expect in a 41-10 thrashing, the stats weren’t all that pretty.  QB Jacob Charest went 11-25 for 164 yards and an INT.  RB Jason Ford ran 14 times for only 34 yards but did have the lone touchdown.  He also had the lone fumble.

 

WR Arrelious Benn had a nice day with four catches for 89 yards.   Other than that, the receivers didn’t do too much.  Defensively, LB Ian Thomas led the way with eight tackles.  The Illini didn’t rack up anything in the pretty stats (sacks, fumbles, interceptions).

 

As for Northwestern, QB Mike Kafka had a monster day.  He threw for 332 yards on 24-37 passing with two touchdowns.  On top of that, he ran for a TD.  RB Stephen Simmons, like Ford, didn’t do much on the ground, only rushing for 37 yards.  The difference was he scored two touchdowns.  WR Charles Brown had a great game grabbing eight passes for 115 and two touchdowns.  Defensively, LB Nate Williams had the only interception in the game.

 

My Prediction

 

NORTHWESTERN 34       ILLINOIS 31      OT

 

This might be the toughest game of the year to predict.  Which Northwestern are we going to see?  Will we see the one that only beat now 0-9 Eastern Michigan by three points, or will we see the team that beat the then 9-0 Iowa by seven on the road?  Which Illini team are we going to see?  The one that looked destined to finish 1-11, or the one that dominate the hell out of Michigan a couple of weeks ago? 

 

If Illinois wants to win, I think there are a couple of things that need to be done.  Firstly, we need to run more with Charest in there.  So far, we haven’t seen a huge running game, or an attempt at one, when Jacob is on the field.  This week of practice is key for the red shirt freshman.   If we can get him more integrated into the offense, I think things will be fine.  He’s shown that he can throw the ball well, so start things off by running well, and then let Charest pick ‘em apart.

 

Secondly, our offensive line needs to be awesome.  I’m thinking back to the Missouri game when the Tigers had Blaine Gabbert in there.  It was his first career start and he dominated the game.  The reason was the defense never got any pressure on him.  After a while, the confidence grew because he know he wasn’t going to get hit, so he could focus on just making solid throws.  If Jacob Charest gets great protection in the pocket, I feel he will react the same way Gabbert did.  The confidence will grow from play to play, and Charest will get to the point where he will start making great passes down field to the receivers.  He also showed in his short time on the field against Purdue that he has the ability to hit the tight end.  The more players he can hit, the tougher he will be to figure out. 

 

Northwestern has struggled running the ball this year.  Their leading rusher is QB Mike Kafka who only has 236 yards on 116 carries.  That means he’s only averaging 2.0 yards a carry!  Their leading running back, Arby Fields, only has 216 yards and is averaging 3.5 a carry.  There is no excuse this week for the Illini this week if they can’t stop the run.  This must be done.  Kafka has done a good job passing this year, throwing at 66.7%, and he’s only thrown seven picks. 

 

The kicking game was the reason I went with Northwestern.  Matt Eller needless to say is struggling.  He is kicking field goals at 40%.  That’s unacceptable.  It makes me wonder if Derek Dimke will get a shot.  On the other hand, senior kicker Stefan Demos is having a phenomenal season.  In fact, on Monday he was named a semi-finalist for the Lou Groza award, which honors the nation’s top kicker.  He’s made 14-16 field goals with a long of 49.  He is also 4-5 in the 40-49 yard range.  If he has a kick at the end of the game to win it, Illinois is in trouble.  Let’s hope he doesn’t get a chance to do anything.

 

Time to look at the prediction standings.  Most people have been going the same way on the predictions, but this last week we had some mixed opinions on the outcome.  Illinois won 35-32, so Illinois is +3 on the real score difference.  NCAA had the real score difference correct, predicting a 31-28 win for Illinois.

 

Name                                                              W                    L                      RSDT*

Tom Young (ILL 28-21)                                 5                      4                      141

Jshaw (ILL 31-17)                                           5                      4                      174

NCAA 10 (ILL 31-28)                                   5                      4                      178

Jweeks (ILL 28-21)                                          5                      4                      200

chrispatton33 (MIN 31-29)                            4                      5                      117

Combatmedic44 (MIN 24-21)                        4                      3                      146

dave1956 (DNP)                                              4                      2                      127

Dropintheknowledge (DNP)                          0                      1                      20

kfj (DNP)                                                           0                      1                      41

 

*- Real Spread Difference Total

 

YEAH, I’M IN FIRST!!!!  We’ll see how long that lasts.  I have a feeling there might be some more mixed predictions this week.  Either way, I think this will be a great football game.  The one thing in Illinois’ favor is that Northwestern got their sixth win last week, so they’re bowl eligible.  I’m glad we aren’t playing them with five wins.  They might not be as hungry after win number six. 

 

The weather is looking decent for Saturday, so get out there and cheer on the Illini!

 

I-L-L…

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