Simulation #4 on NCAA Football 2011
I just competed my fouth simulation with NCAA Football 2011 on the Xbox 360, this weekend, and it wasn't too terrible. Did Illinois make a bowl game? No, but they were much more competitive, especially on offense. I made a couple of changes to the Illini before this sim. First, I swtched the playbook to 'Arkansas', since that is where Paul Petrino came from. Arkansas was running more of a pro style offense, which is closet to what we should see out of Petrino. Since he was Arkansas' OC last year, I decided to take their book. Also, Illinois' default offense was set up as 45% run and 55% pass. If Illinois does this for the upcoming season, I wouldn't be shocked if the stats we saw in my third simulation were to make an appearance. I switched it to 60% run and 40% pass. I'm thinking with a freshman QB, the Illini might try to let the running game take over a bit and not put too much pressure on Sheelhaase while he learns the ropes.
With these changes, the Illini went 5-7 for the second time in four sims. The Illini scored 260 points (21.7ppg), but the defense still had issues, allowing a whopping 328 points (27.3). They also went 3-5 in the conference, which is their best conference showing so far in the four simulations. However, like the other sims, The Illini lost some games that just killed their chances of making a bowl. They lost to Minnesota at home, and Fresno State to end the season. Like I said before, if the Illini go 5-7, I wouldn't be too disappointed.
Remember how pathetic Sheelhaase's stats were last time? This time around, they are considerably better. They aren't great by any means, but there stats were good enough to earn him Freshman All-American honors! How cool would it be if that happened in real life?!?! Let's take a look at some stats.
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BIG TEN STANDINGS |
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| Conference | Overall | |||
| NAME | WIN | LOSS | WIN | LOSS |
| #3 Wisconsin | 7 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| #12 Penn State | 7 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| #7 Ohio State | 6 | 2 | 11 | 2 |
| #13 Iowa | 5 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Illinois | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Northwestern | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Indiana | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Michigan | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Purdue | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
NOTABLE ILLINI STATISTICS
QB Nathan Sheelhaase (Fr.) - 201/438 passing, 2197 yards, 11 TD, 15 INT
351 yards rushing, 4 TD, Freshman All-American!!!
RB Mikel Leshoure (Jr.) - 210 carries, 698 yards, 3.3 ypc, 7 TD, long 66.
TE London Davis (So.) - 71 rec, 748 yards, 4 TD, long 46
Evan Frierson (So.) - 82 tackles, 17 FL, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 8 PD, 2 FF
K Derek Dimke (Jr.) - 21/29 FG, 2 FG made over 50 yards, 27/27 PAT
BIG TEN STATISTICS
| TOP 5 QUARTERBACKS | |||||||
| NAME | YR | COM | ATT | YRD | TD | INT | |
| Terrelle Pryor OSU | JR | 164 | 237 | 2218 | 17 | 2 | Injured mid-season |
| Scott Tolzien WIS | SR | 261 | 400 | 3088 | 30 | 8 | |
| Kirk Cousins MSU | JR | 192 | 358 | 2360 | 21 | 8 | |
| Adam Weber MIN | SR | 150 | 314 | 2082 | 18 | 10 | |
| Kevin Newsome PSU | SO | 192 | 386 | 2349 | 21 | 9 | |
| TOP 5 RUNNINGBACKS | |||||||
| NAME | YR | ATT | YRD | AVG | TD | LONG | |
| John Clay WIS | JR | 345 | 1408 | 4 | 11 | 23 | |
| Evan Royster PSU | SR | 296 | 1149 | 3.8 | 4 | 16 | |
| Adam Robinson IOW | SO | 294 | 1032 | 3.5 | 10 | 16 | |
| Larry Caper MSU | SO | 303 | 1028 | 3.3 | 7 | 26 | |
| Michael Shaw MICH | JR | 271 | 993 | 3.6 | 8 | 75 | |
| TOP 5 RECEIVERS | |||||||
| NAME | YR | REC | YRD | AVG | TD | LONG | |
| Nick Toon WIS | JR | 80 | 1129 | 14.1 | 13 | 57 | |
| Allen Reisner IOW | SR | 75 | 905 | 12 | 7 | 81 | |
| Damario Belcher IND | JR | 74 | 868 | 11.7 | 5 | 58 | |
| London Davis ILL | SO | 71 | 748 | 10.5 | 4 | 46 | |
| Derrell Koulianos IOW | SR | 70 | 1015 | 14.5 | 5 | 64 | |
| TOP 5 DEFENDERS | |||||||
| NAME | YR | TACK | FL | SACK | INT | PD | OTHER |
| OLB Keanon Cooper MIN | SO | 108 | 23 | 6.5 | 0 | 12 | 2 FF, 2 FR |
| OLB Jason Werner PUR | SR | 94 | 8 | 2.5 | 1 | 9 | 3 FF, 1 FR |
| MLB Spencer Reeves MIN | SO | 82 | 16 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 | 1 FF |
| OLB Chad Sherer IND | SO | 93 | 11 | 3.5 | 1 | 9 | 2 FF, 1 FR |
| MLB Greg Jones MSU | SR | 98 | 20 | 5.5 | 2 | 7 | 3 FF, 2 FR |
ILLINOIS' BIG WINS
vs. Northern Illinois 27-21
@ Northwestern 24-17
ILLINOIS' BIG LOSSES
vs. Minnesota 31-16
@ Fresno State 27-21
BIG TEN IN BOWL GAMES
Big Ten goes 3-4 in Bowl Games
Texas Bowl – Oklahoma 45 Indiana 0 (Oklahoma went 9-4 on the year)
Insight Bowl - #18 Texas A&M 41 Minnesota 17
Outback Bowl - #13 Iowa 45 Mississippi State 13
Gator Bowl – Arkansas 29 Michigan State 20
Capital One Bowl - #7 Ohio State 44 #24 Tennessee 10
Rose Bowl - #3 Wisconsin 28 #8 Stanford 14
Sugar Bowl - #2 Alabama 38 #12 Penn State 3
And how about this for a National Championship Game - #1 Utah 48 #4 Boise State 24
The Utes in their final season of Mountain West Football win the national title!!
Utah is the only team in the nation to go undefeated (13-0). Looking at the rest of the top 25, one other teams stuck out at me. Boston College finished at 15th with a 11-2 record. It's the first time I've seen them in there at the end of the simulation.
Hope you enjoyed another round of the simulation. I plan on doing one more. Also, get your predictions ready! Like last year, I am doing the prediction standings where all of you will compete against me in picking the winners of each Illinois football game. Who, if anybody, will dethrone me this year?? Keep up with my blog for more details on that. Talk to you guys next week.
I-L-L...
Hey Tom:
Do you have the time to work with Bob Asmussen to take last years 2009 | 2010 season FB Bowl teams and do playoff simulations?
Why not set up a CU based national FB playoff, just like the BB version, until you announce a championship game and winner?
Cheers!
Hye Jim,
I came across a website a couple of days ago that I think you'd love.
http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaafb/default.asp
You can do game simulations on here will all of the FBS football teams. You can even take historical teams all the way back to 1996. You match up the teams, pick what offense you want them to run, set up the depth chart, pick who's home or away, or even play it on a neutral field. You can even pick the what you want the weather to be.
After you complete a simulation, it will pop up a complete box score of the game. It's crazy how much into detail this goes. You can also do this for other sports too. Pretty cool. I was just playing around with it the other day and enjoyed it. I might put last year's top 8 into it and sim it out and see what happens. Let me know what you think about this website.
Also, feel free to join us for this year's prediction game. Reillini, looking forward to having you back.
Tom Young








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