Illinois doesn’t get in…

Fine.  I am willing to except this.  Even though the Illini had a lot of nice wins this year, their inconsistency, which led to some bad losses, really hurt their chances to get in.  Also, teams like Houston, New Mexico State, Washington, and Minnesota didn’t help by playing some good basketball down the stretch.  Illinois should be in the NIT…. I guess.  It’s taken a day plus or so, but like I said, I am finally willing to except this.

What I am not willing to except is who got in ahead of Illinois in some cases. Some at large bids made since, while others had me saying, “they got in over us?”  You never know what’s going to happen when the conference tournaments come around.  These 1-4 games are the most important games of the season, and sometimes it doesn’t matter how you do, but it’s how others around you do.  In Illinois’ case, it was a little bit of both.

Here’s a look at some teams that had me saying, “They got in over us?”

GEORGIA TECH

This was the one that really ticked me off.  You can ask my friends about how I felt about this.  I kept telling them if Georgia Tech gets in over Illinois that I was going to be furious.  Well, I’m now furious.  First of all, they finished 7-9 in their conference.  I heard someone say that Illinois doesn’t deserve a shot at a national title and therefore shouldn’t be in.  I agree with that.  But does a team that can’t even finish in the upper half of a 12 team conference deserve a shot to win a national title over the 300 some odd teams in Division I basketball?  My answer is a big “HELL NO!”  On top of this bad conference record, they went 1-7 on the road in their conference.  They couldn’t even win away from home.  Their only road win was against North Carolina, which was one loss way from not even seeing any kind of post-season.  Sure, they had a good conference tournament, but I would think a 7-9 conference record would be a glaring beacon of mediocrity.  Also, Virginia Tech, a team that finished 10-6 in conference play, and also beat GT in their only meeting of the season, @ Georgia Tech mind you, didn’t get in.  Virginia Tech should be crying fowl.  The Yellow Jackets got a 10 seed, which tells me that they weren’t really on any kind of bubble to begin with.  Bad pick by the committee on this one.  Georgia Tech out, Virginia Tech in.

FLORIDA

They had 21 wins, and finished 9-7 in their conference, so that looks all right.  What doesn’t look all right is whom they snubbed in place of this team.  In fact, it was also a team that beat them in their conference tournament on a neutral court.  Mississippi State also finished at 9-7 in the conference but had 23 wins.  Both teams looked pretty close in the rankings (Florida 57 in RPI, Mississippi State 55 in RPI).  In that case, you would think head-to-head matchups, which are possible here since they’re in the same conference, would be considered a bit more.  Florida won 69-62 at home over the Bulldogs, which is expected when teams are even.  Then in the SEC tournament, MSU beat the Gators 75-69 in the first round, and then proceeded to beat a good Vanderbilt team (a #4 seed) by ten, and then took the #2 team in the country to overtime in the championship game.  Mississippi State should be crying fowl.  And just like Georgia Tech, Florida got a 10 seed, which once again shows that they really weren’t on the bubble as much as we thought.  Later Gator, insert Mississippi State.

WAKE FOREST

Just like Illinois, they had 19 wins.  This was the only 19-win team to receive an at large bid (an ACC team, go figure).  Also like Illinois, they were tow games above .500 in their conference (9-7).  One glaring stat for the Demon Deacons is their 3-6 record against RPI teams ranked 51-100.  Another glaring fact is how poorly they finished the season.  The lost five of their last six games, including losses @ Virginia Tech (not in tourney), @ North Carolina State (11th in ACC), vs. North Carolina (4th seed in NIT), and vs. Miami in the conference tournament (last in ACC).  You thought Illinois finished the season on a sour note.  If Wake Forest were in another conference besides the overrated ACC, they probably wouldn’t go.  Instead, they are a nine seed, which once again shows that despite all of the baggage, they were never really a bubble team.  Wake Forest out, insert Illinois.

There’s that big question about expansion.  Should the field go to 96?  68?  Some other even number?  My answer is no.  My thought on it is until a 16 beats a 1, there is no reason to expand it.  However, I feel there are ways to improve the selections and get the teams deserving of a shot at a national title in there.  1)  You must win your conference, NOT your conference tournament, to get an automatic bid.  You play way more conference games than conference tournament games, so those should be the bigger and determining factor.  2)  You must finish at least .500 in your conference to be considered.  Teams that can’t even finish in the upper half of a conference have no right taking a spot away from a team that handled their conference better.  3) You have to have at least 20 wins.  I know this has Illinois out this year, but it also has Wake Forest and Houston out.  If these three rules were to be the new criteria, you would have the best 65 teams in the tournament every year.

Prediction Standings

After a couple of games in the Big Ten Tournament, it’s time to update the prediction Standings.  Here’s how they look after 24 games predicted.

Scores:  Illinois over #13 Wisconsin 58-54, #5 Ohio State over Illinois 88-81

NAME                                                            W                    L                      RSDT*

Tom Young (WIS 67-60, OSU 67-63)           18                    6                        188

Reillini (WIS 70-62, OSU 76-72)                  15                    9                        207

Jshaw (WIS 72-60, OSU 78-62)                    15                    8                        208

dave1956 (WIS – DNP, OSU 71-59)            13                    8                        188

jweeks (WIS – DNP, OSU – DNP)                9                    11                      202

PeterE (WIS – DNP, OSU 80-70)                  5                      2                        51

illini82 (WIS 70-63, OSU – DNP)                 0                      1                        11

* - Real Score Difference Total

Looking ahead to round one of the NIT

My Prediction

#1 ILLINOIS 75       #8 STONY BROOK 65

This game should be a blowout, but it won’t be.  Illinois has the potential to hang their heads going into this game, while Stony Brook will be treating this like the Super Bowl.  On top of that, Illinois has the unfortunate situation of playing at their glorified high school gym since the Cirque is in town. 

Stony Brook won their conference title with 13-3 record, and finished 22-9 overall.  They’ve only lost once in thirteen games at home.  This is a pretty young team overall (four freshman, four sophomores, one junior, and four seniors).  They’re led by senior Muhammad El-Amin, who’s averaging 16.7 ppg, but they do get contributions from some of the underclassman.  Sophomore Bryan Dougher is second on the team in scoring averaging 13.6 ppg.  They also have a 300-pound center in Desmond Adedeji, but he hasn’t played since December 2nd.  I’m guessing he’s out for this game too since he’s missed that much time.

Tisdale and Davis are going to be the tallest guys out there, so lets hope they can take advantage of it.  As frustrating as a number of us are about this situation, it can turn into a good learning experience for these kids.  Illinois has a change to play up to five extra games this season, and that can’t hurt.  Even though it’s been slower than we’ve wanted, this team has improved over the course of the season.  It’s a chance to improve a bit more, a chance for the freshman to get some more experience, and a chance to Weber to continue his teaching.  We will learn quite a bit about this team on Wednesday night.  We will learn about how mentally tough they are, and how well they will handle situations that don’t go in their favor.  The 2010 NIT could be a big turning point for the program.  If Illinois were to go all the way in this thing, there will still be a number people in Illini Nation that will find a way to criticize Bruce Weber and the players.  That’s just what they do, and those guys will always be that way, regardless of the situation.  This team has to tune them out and just play basketball.  Let’s have a good run and prove that the committee made a mistake by not putting us in there.

What do you guys think about Wednesday?  Does Illinois move on, or do the Seawolves get their biggest win in program history?  Just predict and comment below.  Thanks for taking time to read this insanely long entry.  I had a lot on my mind this time around.  Go Illini!

I-L-L…

RPI stats were found on ESPN.com and other stats were foundIlliniHQ.com