All I was hoping for in last nights game was for the Illini to hang tough with a top ten team on the road.  For the most part, they did that.  Two big problems with last nights game were the 12-0 run that happened midway through the first half when McCamey went out with foul trouble, and our inability once again to get a hand in the face of a good three point shooter (Jon Diebler).  Overall, I thought Illinois played hard, and gave Ohio State a good effort.  In the end, Ohio State is #6 in the country and they showed why. 

There are a couple of things I want to talk about.  The first one is about strategy.  Ohio State is good because they are able to get contributions from every position on the floor, but they do have one guy in Even Turner who makes them tick.  Last nights strategy was to shut down Turner as much as possible to prevent him from having a big game.  He struggled for a while, but was able to rack up a decent game with 16 points, 12 rebounds and five assists.  Afterwards, I was wondering how well the strategy of letting Turner get his points and focusing on everyone else would work.  With hindsight being 20/20, you see that this might have been a good idea, especially since Diebler lit it up from beyond the arch.  Would it have made a difference in the game?  Who knows.  Turner is the kind of guy who gets others involved.  If they’re a bit more covered, does Turner still try to distribute, or does he go for 30 points.  Even if he were to get 30 points, would if matter if others were having a harder time scoring.  Taylor Battle has been tearing it up for Penn State all season long, but the Nittany Lions are only 3-13 in conference play because the others haven’t stepped up.  I’m not saying coach Weber had the wrong strategy.  There’s nothing wrong with focusing your best defensive efforts on the other teams best player.  But what if he were to mix it up?  Just something I was thinking about.

Next on my mind are Illinois’ NCAA tournament chances.  As of right now, I would not have them in.  They’ve lost four of their last five at the wrong time of the year, and even though they will finish with a +.500 conference record, their non-conference play was way below what it needed to be.  With that being said, The Big Ten this year has been one of the better conferences in the country, at least at the top.  With four teams that have been in title contention all year, and the amazing play of Evan Turner, I feel the Big Ten has gotten a bit more attention nationally than it has in previous years.  That’s apparent when Illinois still got some receiving votes in this week’s Top 25 AP poll despite Saturday’s embarrassment against Minnesota.   What works in their favor is our record against RPI top 25 teams.  Only 18 teams have at least three wins against the RPI top 25.  You guessed it; Illinois is one of them (3-3 record).  What doesn’t work in their favor is their #73 ranking in the lastest RPI.

Another thing that could work in Illinois’ favor is last year’s field of 65.  The Maryland Terrapins made the tournament in ‘09.  Maryland’s record last year before the Big Dance was 20-13, but they were 18-12 before ACC tournament play.  Unlike Illinois, Maryland finished below .500 in the ACC at 7-9.  The ACC was a powerful conference last year and because of that, Maryland was able to get in despite the below average conference record.  Illinois is in a conference that’s faring pretty well this year, and they’re going to finish no worse than 10-8.  A 10-8 or 11-7 conference record could shine brighter than a record that might not get to 20 overall wins.  Also, the Arizona Wildcats made it into the tournament.  They didn’t even have twenty wins on selection Sunday (19-13), and they lost in their first game of the Pac-10 tourney.  As for conference play, they finished 9-9, right at .500.  Also, they were 2-5 against ranked teams last year (Illinois is 4-6 vs. ranked teams this year).  It looks like Illinois at this point looks better than Arizona did last year on selection Sunday.  What might also help Illinois is how well these two teams did in the tournament last year.  Maryland won their first round game against California before losing to a solid Memphis team in the second round.  Arizona fared better; advancing all the way to the sweet sixteen with wins over Utah and Cleveland State, before getting crushed by Louisville.

Despite all of this information, I just don’t see us getting in right now.  That could easily change with a win on Sunday against Wisconsin, another ranked team.  I think the NCAA committee would like to have a guy like Demetri McCamey in their tournament, but the Illini team has to get in as a group first. 

Let’s update the prediction standings.  #6 Ohio State beat Illinois 73-57 last night, so they were +16 on the real score difference.  The standings…

NAME                                                W                    L                      RSDT*

Tom Young (OSU 75-67)                  16                    5                        160

Reillini (OSU 70-55)                           14                    7                        174

Jshaw (OSU 82-65)                            13                    7                        180

dave1956 (DNP)                                 11                    8                        182

jweeks (DNP)                                      9                      10                      202

PeterE  (DNP)                                      3                      2                        43

* - Real Score Difference Total

Looking ahead to Sunday’s final regular season game…

My Prediction

#15 WISCONSIN 68       ILLINOIS 67

You have no idea how hard it is for me to pick against Illinois in this one.  Both teams have something to play for here.  I’m assuming Wisconsin will beat Wisconsin tonight.  That will put them at 11-6 in conference play, one game ahead of Illinois.  If Illinois were to win this game, they would pass Wisconsin in the standings because they beat them twice and get a four seed or better.  That would look nice on our tournament resume.  Lose this game, and Illinois gets a five seed, and you could play Wisconsin again next Friday in the Big Ten Tournament.  Wisconsin wants the win because they want revenge for what Illinois did to them in Madison on February 9th.  Illinois wants to win because they want to improve their chances of making the tournament.  As you can, there’s a lot on the line in this game for Illinois, and Wisconsin has its reasons for not blowing this game off. 

Another big factor in my decision is the return of Jon Leuer.  He didn’t play in Madison, but he will on Sunday.  His point total in the three games he’s been back has climbed with each passing game (4, 11, 13 pts).  He’s starting to get back into the routine of things, and this makes the Badgers more dangerous than they were a month ago.  Both teams will play hard, but in the end, the better TEAM will win.

What do you guys think about Sunday?  Will Bucky bounce Illinois, or will the Illini come out swinging?  Also, what are your thoughts on what I said about the defensive strategy on teams like Ohio State.  I always enjoy reading what you guys have to say.  Enjoy the rest of your week.  Looks like we will see quite a bit of sunshine, so go out there and enjoy it.

I-L-L…

*Stats and other miscellaneous information found on IlliniHQ.com and ESPN.com*