FInal Prediction Standings, Plus Final Thoughts on the Season

 

What a disappointing end to the season.

This loss had me more upset than any of our recent losses.  It wasn't because Dayton was a awful team, but it was because Illinois just couldn't match the intensity of some middle of the road Atlantic 10 team.  Maybe Illinois losses the game anyway if they were ready to go from the start, who knows?  If that were the case, I might be able to swallow this loss a little easier.  Either way, another season of Illini hoops has ended, and it's time to look ahead to what they will be able to put on the court next year.  Despite what all of the anti-Weber fans are saying, things are looking pretty darn good for the future, and it already has me excited for next November.

PREDICTION STANDINGS (A FINAL LOOK)

Let's take our final look at the prediction standings.  I would like to thank all of you who participated and took the time to read what I had to say through out the season.  You might not have always agreed with what I said, but it's always my goal to deliver my opinions, whether good or bad, with as level a head as possible.  I feel this leaves the door open to a better discussion about our Illini instead of some silly argument where both people involved are typing in cap locks to get their point/threats across.  I hope you all enjoyed playing along this season, and when football comes back around, I plan on doing it again. 

Dayton beat Illinois 77-71, so the Flyers were +6 in the real score difference.

NAME                                                           W                L                RSDT*

Tom Young (ILL 75-61)                            20                7                  212

Reillini (ILL 72-66)                                  17               10                 229

Jshaw (DAY 78-66)                                  16               10                 254

dave1956 (ILL 79-65)                              15                9                  212

jweeks (DNP)                                            11                11                 217

PeterE (DNP)                                             5                  2                   51

Jam (DNP)                                                  1                  0                    2

illini82 (DNP)                                            0                  1                   11

* - Real Score Difference Total

SUMMING UP THE SEASON

No doubt that this season was a roller coaster ride.  This group of kids has so many low points, but balanced them out with a good number of high points.  This is why we watched and listened.  We had no idea what to expect from these guys on a night in and night out basis.  To represent just how this season went, I will break down the things I liked and disliked about the Illini...roller coaster style.

GOOD - Demetri McCamey...Say what you want about this guy, but I would hate to imagine where Illinois would be if he didn't improve the way he did.  McCamey turned into the go-to guy on offense, even if he lacked in the ability to be the on-the-court general.  We all witnessed just how special of a player he is.  Whether it was his ability to look one pass ahead and set up his players with open looks, or getting hot with the shooting touch and scoring in bunches, McCamey was outstanding.  Will he be back next year?  Who would have thought this is the question we'd be asking about him when the year started?  He's developed into an NBA prospect, and one more year with Weber and the incoming talent could be just what he needs to staying power at the professional level.

BAD - Free Throws...Illinois isn't a bad free throw shooting team.  Not great, but not bad.  How they shoot them isn't the problem, it's how many.  This team just doesn't give themselves any chance to get to the line.  They rely so much on the outside shooting and it's hard to get fouled unless your driving to the hoop.  McCamey showed moments of this, which is frustrating because I think he can do this a heck of a lot more.  Brandon Paul can also do this, and when he was in there he showed us that he can.  In regular season play, Illinois finished 8th in the Big 10 in free throws attempted.  They attempted only eight more than Wisconsin, but the Illini also played two more games, and they shot more than Michigan and Iowa.  How did those two teams do?  Getting to the line will help you win games, so let's hope the Illini can find a way to get there a bit more often next year.

GOOD - 2nd half comebacks...Starting with that Clemson game, Illinois had a knack for battling in the 2nd half and finding it's way back into a game. Even in games where we thought they were done, the Illini thought differently, and fought back to a point where they were all of a sudden in a position to win. They didn't always win these games, but some of these comebacks were amazing, and it showed that this team never quit.

BAD - 1st half slow starts...In order to have a big comeback, you have to be trailing by a big number. Illinois for whatever reason would come out of the gate sluggish in some of their bigger games this season. Even late in the season, they fell behind early to Stony Brook, and they got behind Dayton early and could never really get into that game. If you take away some of these slow starts, Illinois might have an extra win or two, which would have got them into the Big Dance.

GOOD -Big wins...In order to be considered for the NCAA tournament when you don't have 20 wins goes to show that something on your resume looks pretty darn good.  In Illinois' case, it was the number of wins against top 25 teams.  Teams like Clemson (when they were ranked), Northwestern (when they were ranked), Michigan State, and Wisconsin (twice) all saw Illinois when they were clicking.  Not very many teams, including some currently in the Big Dance, can point to wins like those Illinois had.  It was games like this that showed us just how good these guys could be when they played mistake-free basketball.

BAD - Big losses...And here is why Illinois didn't get into the NCAA tournament.  They had 14 losses when Selection Sunday came around, including a few that just killed their chances.  The two in Las Vegas really stick out (Utah and Bradley), and the home loss to Minnesota was probably what propelled the Golden Gophers into the tournament over the Illini.  If the Illini find a way to take care of the lesser teams instead of playing down to their level, not only are we in the Tournament, but we probably got a pretty nice seed too.  Despite how upset a number of you out there in Illini Nation are, Illinois didn't miss the Tournament by much despite some of these crucial losses.

GOOD - Improvement as the year went along...Some will disagree on this, but the Illini got better with each passing game.  Illinois won games in February and March that they probably wouldn't have won if played back in November and December.  Sure, there were still some of those games where Illini might have regressed (vs. Minnesota and Dayton), but who saw this as a 20 win team after the Las Vegas trip?  I know I had a hard time seeing that.  Even thought some players didn't progress the way Bruce Weber would have liked, the team as a whole got better and gave us some exciting moments down the stretch.

BAD - Selection Sunday...This was a tough day for all of us.  It looked like Illinois needed just one win the Big Ten tournament to get a spot in the field of 65, and they got it against a good Wisconsin team, followed by a great showing in a double OT loss to the number five team in the country.  In the end, early bad losses, plus conference tournaments being won by teams who had no right being in the NCAA Tourney, left the Illini on the outside looking in.  If you read one of my previous blog entries, you know what my thoughts were on this year's selections, but in the end Illinois needed one more win, and they couldn't get it.

GOOD – The NIT run...Even though the NIT isn't exactly where we wanted our team to end up, I feel that this was a good experience for a team that is returning everyone that played relevant minutes. It also get the freshman a chance to play in a few more games, and I think they will be better off because of it. Brandon Paul saw the floor a bit more and made some nice contributions. D.J. Richardson was able to rack up a few more assist and work towards being a better distributor, and Tyler Griffey was able to add another double-digit point game into the stat book. These freshman are going to be fighting for playing time with next year's freshman, so they can use any extra gaming experience that comes there way.

BAD – Bill Cole over Brandon Paul...It would have been nice to see Brandon Paul get a little bit more playing time. At the same time he has to earn it. I guess my problem with Bill Cole is I still see him struggling to do anything against Chris Britt when Richwoods played Centennial at the Assembly Hall during our first ever DWS Shootout at the Hall. Nothing against Britt, but if Cole was an Illini recruit, I was kind of expecting him to do something that game, and he didn't. Ever since, I keep seeing that game whenever I see Bill Cole. Is that fair? Probably not. One thing we do know is that Paul gives you more athleticism, and has the ability to create with the ball in his hands. Cole was able to play a bit better on defense, and that's what Weber wants. Paul needs to improve on the D, and if he does and earns more playing time, Illinois will be better off because of it.

GOOD – The future...Tough for some to see it now. Maybe they don't even want to look at it because they won't be able to say anything bad about it, but things are definitely looking for Illini basketball next year. Will the team win a national title? Probably not, but they will be deeper and more athletic, which is a nice combination to have if we have to face a team like Dayton again. Jereme Richmond and Myers Leonard look really good, and Crandall Head when healthy is as athletic as his brother but a few inches taller. Weber will have plenty to work with when next year comes around, and if these guys ever grasp the idea of Weber's defense, look out Big Ten.

BAD – Losing four of their last five at home...The Assembly Hall up until the end of this season has been a place that has been difficult for opponents to play in. You were almost able to chalk up a loss for any team that entered the building. Towards the end of this year, it was almost the other way around. Illinois had a hard time protecting the home court, and in the end, it hurt their NCAA chances. Next year, let's hope the Assembly Hall once again becomes a place that strikes fear into it's opponents.

 

GRADING THE SEASON

Fans were expecting this team to make it to the Field of 65. Illinois made it their goal to get there. They didn't. Looking back at it you have to wonder if this was a team worthy of making it. When the year started, McCamey looked nothing like he looks now. Davis and Tisdale were still skinny kids, and two freshman were in the starting lineup on day one. This wasn't an NCAA team in November, but as the year went along, they almost became one.

Conference wise, a fifth place finish I feel was pretty good. Michigan State was better, Wisconsin was better, Ohio State and Purdue were definitely better, and Illinois was part of that 'the rest' category. Illinois was able to beat 'the rest' and finish right behind Wisconsin. Don't take my word one this, but I believe Athlon had Illinois finishing seventh in the Big Ten this year, so they did better than that.

Obviously the big glaring negative was not making the Tournament, but if you break it down, I don't think this season was as much a 'failure' as some would say. Yes, it could have been better, but it also could have been much worse if McCamey didn't become an NBA prospect. Final Grade: a solid C. An average grade for an average season. For every bad, there was a good, so in the end, it all averaged out...to average.

What do you guys think about the season? Agree, disagree, don't know what I'm talking about? Let me know. We can take this time to have a good discussion on how things turned out and what we expect for the future. By the way, believe it or not, this is my 150th blog entry. Surprisingly, my fingers haven't fallen off yet.

Once again, I just want to say thank you for reading what I had to say throughout the football and basketball season. I'm by no means an expert on the subject, but still think the fans should be able to voice what they have to say. That's why I titled this the 'For the Fans' blog. I always enjoy what you guys have to say, whether good, bad, or over the top. Keep it up! Talk to you guys later.

And for the last time this season...

I-L-L...

Stats can and other numbers can be found in IlliniHQ.com

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Reillini wrote on March 25, 2010 at 5:03 pm

INI

Tom,agree 100% with your thoughts they mirror mine. The future is bright, My guess on there Big Ten record was 11-7, and said I'd feel ok with that.I missed by one game..By the way did you move to afternoons on the WHMS??????

try122583 wrote on March 25, 2010 at 6:03 pm

Hey Reillini,

I'm just filling in on the afternoons this week for Ryan Arthur since he's doing Mike in the Morning's shift. I'll be back on overnights next week. Thanks for reading all year.

Tom Young

illini82 wrote on March 26, 2010 at 8:03 am

Since January I though Illinois needed two numbers to get to the NCAA: 11 and 20. That is 11 conference wins and 20 overall wins (or better) to make the big dance.

Turns out another win in either column would have put us in but the NCAA didn't screw us. We screwed ourselves. Yes I think we deserved to be there but we put ourselves in that position of being on the bubble and that puts you at risk.

I think we'll be better next year but just getting to the tourney is not the goal. This program expects to be in the tourney with reasonable expectations for the Sweet 16.

Jshaw wrote on March 26, 2010 at 8:03 am

I couldnt agree more.

I was just constantly bummed bout the slow starts every game like we just didnt care. Im not sure how you could possibly come out that flat time and time again.

try122583 wrote on March 26, 2010 at 11:03 am

Towards the end of the season, I saw this as a bit of a rebuilding year. Not completely, but a little bit. That's why the results don't bother me as much as it bothers others. We needed to get the talented freshman some experience at the college level, and now they got it.

I'm with you illini82. Next year, I'll be expecting a bit more. I want to see an NCAA appearance along with a couple of wins. I don't think that's too far a stretch for what we have coming back and coming in.

Reillini wrote on March 29, 2010 at 6:03 pm

Hey guys, How do you think the 3 freshmen coming in will fit into and or improve this team???

try122583 wrote on March 30, 2010 at 7:03 am

I'm excited to get these kids in here. I think Richmond will battle for a starting spot. I don't know if he will get it, but he will be a significant part of the team. His combination of height and athleticism will be a nice addition to the team.

I’m still not sure about Leonard. From what I’ve seen of him, he’s definitely talented, but he’s going to make a massive jump from 2A high school ball to college ball. Like Tisdale, he’s a skinny guy that can shoot it a bit, but he does have some ability to get inside (still, it’s 2A ball, so how much should we look at this?). Also, unlike Tisdale, he isn’t afraid to dunk the ball. Type “Meyers Leonard dunk” into YouTube and watch his dunk against Decatur St. Teresa in Super-Sectionals. Pretty awesome for a 7-footer.

As for Crandall Head, I really don’t know what he will do right away. After missing most of last season, how will he come in and adjust to the college game. Like Richmond, he’s very athletic. He’s just as athletic as his brother Luther, and the thing that stuck out to me were how long his arms are. He has the ability to play taller than he is because of those long arms.

If these three guys get comfortable, I feel they will be great additions to the team. This, along with pretty much everyone else coming back, give the Illini some solid depth, which would be crucial if we have to face a team like Dayton again. All and all, I’m excited to see what they can do.