Prediction Standings Update, Plus looking at ILL-OSU

When the Badgers play at the Kohl Center, they ‘expect great things’ (See what I did there?), but Illinois became the first unranked Big Ten team to win @ Wisconsin since I was a sophomore in high school (or ten years ago).  It wasn’t pretty early, but Illinois hung in there by getting some stops and just like they have for most of the Big Ten season, they rode the hot hand of Demetri McCamey.  I think someone finally told him how good he was.  He had seven of the teams eight assists, and made his shots again, whether he was driving in or hitting those Rich McBride threes. 

 

On top of this, a couple of nice things happened last night.  One, Purdue beat Michigan State 76-64, so believe it or not, Illinois is in a first place tie with MSU at 9-3.  Also, Vanderbilt beat #12 Tennessee.  This makes Illinois look a little bit better as in improves their strength of schedule a little bit.  Does all of this solidify their spot in the Big Dance?  If they were picking teams today, they’re in, but that doesn’t mean they’re a lock. 

 

As of February 9th, Illinois was ranked #72 in the RPI, and this includes our win against Michigan State on February 6th.  No doubt the win at Wisconsin got Illinois some much needed national attention, but a poor showing against Ohio State could just as easily make the nation forget about them again.  Even though the Big Ten record is impressive, the non-conference holds more weight than we want it to, and Illinois will have to keep tearing it up down the stretch to erase the inconsistency of late 2009.  In the end, I thank they are in the dance.  As of yesterday, collegehoopsnet.com had Illinois as a #12 seed, which means they would have been one of the last teams to get in with an at-large bid.  Winning at Wisconsin moves us up a bit higher, but a loss to a Minnesota or a Michigan could knock them right back out.  If they just take care of business at home, I think they’ll be fine.

 

 

Taking a look at the prediction standings, everyone but Jshaw predicted an Illinois loss.  Illinois won 63-56 at #11 Wisconsin, so Illinois was +7 on the real score difference.  Let’s take a look.

 

Name                                                  W                    L                      RSDT*

 

Tom Young (WIS 70-63)                    13                    3                        114

 

Reillini (WIS 58-50)                             11                    5                        140

 

Jshaw (ILL 72-62)                               10                    5                        146

 

dave1956 (WIS 58-50)                         9                     6                        140

 

jweeks (WIS 65-60)                              9                     6                        146

 

PeterE (DNP)                                        2                     2                         39

 

* - Real Score Difference Total

 

My Prediction

 

ILLINOIS 79    #16 OHIO STATE 74

 

Here’s hoping Illinois can match the energy they had the last time a ranked team came to the Hall.  The Illini are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time, as the schedule still remains tough.  I would like to see Mike Davis score a point at some point in this game, but other than that, I don’t care what the win looks like.  It just needs to be a win. 

 

I also hope McCamey just plays his game and doesn’t focus too much on the match-up with high school teammate Evan Turner.  I can see him getting lost in this one-on-one match-up.  It’s natural to think about it, but in the end, he needs to just focus on winning.  The media will talk up this match-up all the way up until Sunday and he just has to ignore it. 

 

It’s time for you guys to predict.  Will Illinois make it six in a row and three straight over ranked teams, or will Ohio State continue to roll since Turner’s return?  Also, what do you guys think about Illinois’ Big Dance chances?  Do you think their still on the bubble?  Are they a lock to make it?  Or do you think they’re still on the outside looking in?  I’m interested to see what you all have to say.

 

I-L-L…

Comments

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illini82 wrote on February 10, 2010 at 8:02 am

Illinois can and should beat OSU but I won't predict a victory due to bad karma or whatever. I'll leave that up to you guys.

Illinois is virtually a lock for the NCAA now but they still better get a couple more wins to get to 11 conference wins. But, I'm greedy. I want to take one from PU too to stay in the B10 hunt. Beat OSU and PU and we have a great chance for at least a share of the B10 title.

Jshaw wrote on February 10, 2010 at 8:02 am

I think illinois is a lock for the dance but will come do to if someone upsets there way to a conferance tourny who shouldnt be in.

ILL- 73

OSU- 68

talented OSU gives us fits, but neither team likes defense so should be a plus

dave1956 wrote on February 10, 2010 at 3:02 pm

Ohio State 77

Illini 70

Illini keeps it close at home but not enough as they lose.

If they get two more wins ( michigan,Minnesota) plus 1 win in the big 10 tournament, that will give them 20 wins on the year. Then they would be in.

Reillini wrote on February 10, 2010 at 5:02 pm

INI

Illini-79

OSU-76

Another nailbiter but we have found a way to win these big games.Tourney road sure looks better now but I don't think we are in yet

jweeks wrote on February 11, 2010 at 11:02 am

ILL 78

OSU 74

close game but i think our fans will help pull us through... but for god sakes dont storm the court!

RPeterE wrote on February 14, 2010 at 2:02 pm

Bruce had no answers for Ohio State either defensively or offensively. At one point CBS showed Ohio State backcourt with 32 points to Illinois 1 point. I've never seen so much standing around and aimless dribbling resulting in frequent lack of scoring. Illini went large groups of minutes without a score while Ohio State scored freely outside and INSIDE. The team that wanted it more, hustled and played with purpose WON! Bruce Weber was thoroughly and overwhelmingly outcoached by Thad Matta. Matta had his team resoundingly prepared for Illinois while Weber had NO answers nor seemingly any real strategy.