The last two simulations I have done with Illinois didn’t go pretty well.  If you remember, Ohio State won 34-3 and Penn State won 42-0.  After yesterday’s big announcement naming Eddie McGee as our new starting QB, will the simulation give Illinois a chance against Michigan State?  Let’s see how it went.

NCAA 10 on XBOX 360

ILLINOIS 20       MICHIGAN STATE 9

What the heck?!?! A defensive affair?  Really?  Okay…

QB Eddie McGee had a good game, going 19-30 for 290 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for another touchdown.  Overall the rushing game didn’t do anything.  RB Daniel Dufrene ran for only 56 yards on 15 carries, and Eddie McGee amassed only 17 yards on the ground.

McGee did spread the ball around to seven different receivers, but WR Arrelious Benn ended up being his favorite target, catching eight passes for 121 yards and a touchdown. 

As you would expect only allowing nine point, the Illini had some pretty decent defensive numbers.  LB Russell Ellington led the game in tackles with nine and also had an interception.  DE Clay Nurse spent a good chunk of his day in the backfield, making five tackles, with four being for a loss and 3 being sacks.

For Michigan State, QB Kirk Cousins went 23-44 for 229 yards and one interception.  Freshman RB Glenn Winston ran for only 65 yards on 18 carries, and while WR Charlie Gantt caught seven passes, how only gained 66 yards. 

Overall, Illinois out gained Michigan State 363-298.

My Prediction

MICHIGAN STATE 35       ILLINOIS 28

I believe Eddie McGee will create a bit of a spark on offense.  I think he is more willing to scramble than Juice is.  I’m not saying that this makes Juice a bad quarterback, but I don’t think the ‘pass first’ mentality applies to McGee as much as Juice.  This means Michigan State will have to keep one extra guy up in the box as a spy to not only cover the short route, but to make sure McGee doesn’t get free.  With one more guy in the box, this could give us a chance to pass deeper down the field.  The question is, will we do it?

The running game could get a spark too.  Add McGee to Dufrene and Ford (and Benn I guess) and you have the potential to keep the Spartans fooled all game.  If we can get back to the offense we used in 2007, all will be well again in Champaign.  In 2006, we had near a 65-35 run-pass ratio (595 runs and 323 passes).  This year it’s more of a 56-44 run-pass ratio (150 runs and 120 passes).  I know getting behind large probably changes the way the offense is called, but this isn’t a team that can go Texas Tech on you and pass every play.  We can’t abandon the run game too early.  Besides, the defense needs to rest a bit so they won’t falter in the second half.  The three straight 3 and outs to start the second half last week did the Illini in, and kept that defense on that field.  Running also sets up 3rd and short plays instead of those 3rd and 11 type plays.  They also got to make sure they try for the first down marker on third down.  No more 3rd and 11 screen passes please.  I don’t want to use the name John Schoop in my blog anymore. 

Defensively, I still don’t think that extra rest will matter too much.  Michigan State has passed the ball more than they have ran it this year (176 passes and 166 runs).  We all know how our pass coverage has been this year, so this could be a scary game for the defense.  It will be important to get them in third and long to limit what they can do.  If not, Sophomore QB Kirk Cousins could put up some monster numbers and ruin homecoming. 

Kirk Cousins did suffer an ankle injury last in their win against Michigan last week.  Backup QB Keith Nichol, also a sophomore, looks like he's very capable quarterback, boasting a rating of 156 after 50 pass attempts.  I haven’t seen either QB in action yet , but it looks like Michigan State’s game plan is the same regardless of who is running the offense.

All right, time to update the standings in our little prediction game.  I took a massive hit last week.  That’s what I get for feeling optimistic.  I wouldn’t mind being wrong this week though.  Here’s how it looks through four games.  Penn State won 35-17 last week so the real time score difference is Penn State +18.  Nice pick by Jshaw, who missed the final score by one single point and picked Illinois’ score correctly.  Combatmedic44 was only off by three points and picked Penn State’s score correctly.  Dave also picked Penn State’s score correctly.   AND, chrispatton33 missed the spread by only one point.  This makes my prediction look stupid.  Nice work.

Name                                                            W                     L                      RSDT*

chrispatton33 (PSU 27-10)                            3                      1                         58

Jshaw (PSU 34-17)                                       3                      1                         59

NCAA 10 (PSU 42-0)                                  3                      1                         74

Jweeks (PSU 13-10)                                     3                      1                         94

Tom Young (ILL 24-23                                 2                      2                         74

Combatmedic44 (PSU 35-14)                       2                      0                         27

dave1956 (PSU 35-6)                                   1                      1                         49

* - Real Score Difference Total from all of the games played this year. 

Time to send in your score predictions for this week's homecoming game.  In case you're wondering, Michigan State is an early 4.5-point favorite over Illinois.  If you want to know how poor the season is, just look at that again.  Michigan State a favorite over Illinois at Memorial Stadium.  Not good.

Don’t forget to try Whack-A-Spartan!  New high with 40 whacks and only seven misses!  Sparty’s going down!!!

I-L-L…

+++ - Stats on rushes and passes for Illinois and Michigan State found on ESPN.com - +++