The first simulation of the year is complete, and I think you will like what you see.  If only these results could carry over to Saturday’s game.  Here’s what happened:

NCAA 10 on the Xbox 360

ILLINOIS 38      MISSOURI 17

This game was won right off the bat.  In fact, Illinois led 17-0 and Missouri couldn’t get the stops needed to come back.  The Illini had some nice offensive numbers in this turnover-free game.

QB Juice Williams was awesome, going 24-35 for 316 yards and two touchdowns.  He also had a rushing TD.  RB Daniel Dufrene had a nice game, running for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns.  As you’d expect, WR Arrelious Benn was Juice’s main target, catching 10 balls for 165 yards.  WR Jarred Fayson and Backup TE London Davis caught the two touchdown passes. 

Not a whole lot happening on defense.  DE Doug Pilcher had two sacks and three tackles for loss.  Other than that, nothing really stuck out.  K Matt Ellar had a rough day, making on one out of three field goals, but he did make all five of his extra point attempts. 

For Missouri, QB Blaine Gabbert, a five-star player in his first start, didn’t really show signs of inexperience.  He went 19-32 for 274 yards and a touchdown.  His TD pass went to Senior WR Jared Perry, who was obviously Gabbert’s favorite target.  Perry had 12 catches for 195 yards to go with that TD! 

My prediction

ILLINOIS 42      MISSOURI 35

I see the Illini offense will do exactly what they did in the simulation.  They'll lots of yardage, and they'll get lots of points.  I think this offense is on its way to breaking some records this season, and we are going to have a fun time watching them all year long.  However, as you know by now, I’m still concerned with the defense.  With a quarterback like Gabbert making his first start, you got to rattle him.  Get in his face, trash talk 'em to death, and let him know that every play will be tough for him. 

Illinois will win this game early.  The offense will click right away, while Gabbert takes some time to get comfortable.  Fortunately for him, he has touchdown machine Derrick Washington, a 1,000-yard rusher from a year ago.  Washington will ease Gabbert into the game a bit, and then I think his five star ability will start to show.  Also, senior LB Sean Witherspoon will try to make things difficult for our running game.  He racked up 155 total tackles last year, so you know he will be everywhere.  I think Illinois might pass a bit more because of Witherspoon, but I believe Schultz and company will run some misdirection and playactions to keep Witherspoon off guard and take advantage of the players surrounding him. 

All right, time to hear what you think will happen on Saturday.  In the comment section below, send us a score prediction.  If you want, also tell us why you see the game turning out that way.  I’m curious to see what you guys think will happen.  Illinois appears to be a 6.5-7 point favorite, so maybe that will help you figure out a score.  I’ll keep track of your record based on whether you picked correctly, and how you picked against the spread. Example:  If Illinois wins by 7, then the NCAA sim I did last night is 1-0 in picking correctly, and 14 points off of the spread.  The closer you are to the correct score spread-wise, the better your position in the standings.  Differential in total points will be a tie breaker, so actually predict a score and not just a spread.  Hope that makes sense.  If not, hit me up with an e-mail (tyoung@wdws.com).  Talk to you guys after the game Saturday!

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