Everyone in Illini Nation knew that 4 of the first 5 games of the schedule were going to be tough.   Missouri has not been a good matchup for the Illini in recent years.... and starting the Big Ten schedule with the top 3 preseason favorites in the league race (OSU, PSU, MSU) had the potential to weigh down Illini expectations for this season.

Based on the schedule...even with all the offensive experience returning from a year ago... I thought before the season started that if the Illini could get through those first 5 games with at least a 3-2 record ....that would be a major accomplishment.  With the schedule (on paper) breaking in their favor at mid season.... I predicted that even a 2-3 record for the Illini would give them a chance to aim for a nice bowl game at the end of the season.

One thing to remember about predictions:.  They generally arent worth the paper they are printed on.  It is like an Army General and his battle plans during a war:   They look great on paper...until the enemy starts doing things and going places that you did not account for in your plans.   Then you have to adjust and recalculate based on the facts on the ground as they are.

A couple of things have happened along the way this first 5 weeks of the season.  One...the Illini offense has struggled in ways no one could have imagined.  With nearly 100% of the offensive firepower  returning from a year ago...every expert that I knew of thought the same thing: while the Illini defense might have some question marks the offense would be able to overcome that.... and basically outscore opponents to win games. 

Obviously...that hasnt happened.  The Illni are averaging about 10  points per game in contests against BCS conference schools. That lack of offense puts pressure on the defense ...which in turn puts pressure on the offense...which...well...you get the idea..  It becomes a vicious cycle. 

Fans are blaming lots of things for the unexpected 1-4 start: the new offensive coordinator....the quarterback...the offensive line...the running backs...the defense...injuries.  Pick one and you can probably bump into someone around town who agrees with you..  But the bottom line is that the offense has not produced ....and the defense has struggled ....and the coaching staff is scrambling to get it all fixed before it is too late in the season.

All season long.... the defense has had a good half...then a bad half...then a good half...followed by a bad half....all season long.  Good against the pass one game...bad against the run in another game.  Or vice-versa.  Or both.  They  simply have to be more consistent. 

One encouraging sign...the defense did play with a lot of effort and fire in the 2nd half against Michigan State.  Some might argue that MSU was just shutting things down offensively in the last 30 minutes....and I suppose you could make that arguement.  But you cant fake hitting people hard and flying around on the field on defense and I thought the Illini did a good job of that from about the middle of the 2nd quarter on during Saturday's game. We need to see more of that...for both halves of games. I thought Walt Aikens (freshman safety) and Aaron Gress (JC-linebacker)added some spark on defense in the game with the Spartans.

The other factor that you never know about the schedule (and the possibility of beating future opponents) until you get there.... is the mental makeup of the team and the fact that opponents might be better or worse than you thought at the start of the season.  Indiana was showing signs of improvement......incuding a close loss at Michigan.  But where was that same Hoosier  team in Charlottesville against Virginia (47-7 loss)?  Which Indiana team will Illinois see on Saturday night?  What about Purdue?  Are the Boilermakers any good?  The seem dangerous....especially on the ground.  But they have had trouble holding onto leads and are also struggling their way through October.  The Illini meet them in West Lafayette in 2 weeks.  And Northwestern has barely slid by some of its opponents this year and  have to come to Champaign in November.

And what of the Illini mental makeup?  Do they still believe in themselves enough to keep pushing through what will soon be the "dog days" of the season.  The practices are probably feeling longer and the days are getting colder and shorter by the day.  It is up to them and the coaching staff to keep working...keep improving ....and hope that good things can happen and the current downward momentum can be turned around in time.

That is what makes the game at Indiana so critical Saturday night.  The Illini will be facing a team that they can beat.  In fact...the Illni are favorites this weekend in Bloomington.   Does that mean they will win?  Hard to predict.  Just remember.... the whole idea of predictions (and paper) I have been talking about in this blog.

Some fans have already written the rest of the season off.  The question is...what about the Illini themselves?

We find out at newly refurbished Memorial Stadium in Bloomington.

Our Illini Gameday show starts at 4:30 pm on Saturday. 

See you on the radio!